Stand and Deliver: UFC 315

Every fight matters, but some matter just a little more.

A win is a win and a loss is a loss, but some feel bigger than others for various reasons. In some cases, the elevated stakes are easy to define—the fighter on a losing streak who knows he or she is likely fighting for their job, or conversely, any title fight in a top regional organization, where the combatants know the big leagues are scouting them. At other times, a fight feels especially important for reasons that are harder to quantify but no less real. Whether it’s the unspoken weight of being a pioneer in MMA from one’s native country or the simple added spice of two fighters who genuinely hate each other’s guts, that fight just means more.

This Saturday, the Ultimate Fighting Championship will venture north of the border for the first time this year, as UFC 315 takes place at Bell Centre in Montreal. A compact lineup by standards of modern UFC pay-per-view offerings—a dozen fights that may be pared down to 11 if a suitable replacement cannot be found to step in against Benoit St. Denis for the injured Joel Alvarez—nonetheless features Belal Muhammad and Valentina Shevchenko defending their belts against intriguing challengers.

Supporting those top two bouts is an eclectic lineup that includes a respectable cast of Canadian fighters—not to mention Manon Fiorot, a French title challenger who is likely to go over like a native daughter with the Quebec crowd. There are also two all-time greats in Jose Aldo and Jessica Andrade who, while clearly in the stretch run of their legendary careers, have remained competitive against the best their divisions have to offer.

Among the 22 fighters scheduled to make the walk on Saturday night, here are a couple who are under just a little added pressure to stand and deliver:

Alexa Grasso: Win, Then Yell “Allez Manon!”

However unfair it might be, Grasso’s bout with Natalia Silva this weekend will have a major say in how her rivalry with Shevchenko is perceived by history. At first glance, a three-fight series that left her 1-1-1 with, at worst, one of MMA’s three greatest pound-for-pound women ever should be a guaranteed legacy maker for Grasso. The devil is in the details. Their first meeting, at UFC 285 a little over two years ago, was well on its way to being just another night at the office for “Bullet,” who might have been the most dominant champ in the promotion at the time. Remember that Shevchenko was going for her eighth straight title defense, and the first seven had seen her enter the cage as anywhere between a 5-to-1 and 12-to-1 favorite, then justify those odds by trouncing her foes so thoroughly that taking a single round off her was seen as a moral victory. Yes, Taila Santos had given Shevchenko a serious push in her previous defense, but she had done so by nearly matching the champ’s brute physicality—not a game plan that Grasso seemed likely to be able to replicate.

Instead, Grasso capitalized beautifully on an ill-advised spinning strike attempt by Shevchenko, taking her back and applying a lightning-quick face crank to shock the world. That led to a trilogy of title fights, punctuated by a season coaching “The Ultimate Fighter,” in which Grasso proved that she was in fact one of the top flyweights in the world. By the end of their third fight, however, Shevchenko had demonstrated to most observers that she was the superior fighter, in a way that would make a fourth meeting a hard sell.

For that reason, Grasso’s meeting with Silva may go a long way towards determining whether she is remembered as the second-best flyweight of all time who just happened to have the misfortune of coinciding with the title reign of the GOAT, or merely as a very good fighter who parlayed 15 seconds of brilliance into putting her division on hold for two full years for a trilogy she may not have deserved. I have overstated both of those extremes for effect, but I stand by the basic principle: Grasso has a lot to prove at UFC 315. While that is just my opinion, it is supported by the fact that Grasso is a bigger underdog against Silva than she was against Shevchenko in their second meeting—to say nothing of the third, in which Grasso was actually the betting favorite. Part of that is due to Silva’s long win streak and obvious upside, but at least some of it is down to a wait-and-see attitude towards the 31-year-old Mexican.

That makes Saturday’s to-do list the very picture of simplicity for Grasso. First, derail the hottest prospect in her division. Next, grab a comfortable seat and root like hell for Fiorot in the co-main event.

Please, Ion Cutelaba: Less “Hulk,” More Bruce Banner

It’s a crowded field, but I’m comfortable calling Cutelaba one of the biggest underachievers in MMA today, and a sneaky riser on the all-time list. Based on natural physical talent and the component skills that comprise mixed martial arts, there is simply no reason the “Hulk” should be under .500 in the UFC. He is a standout fast-twitch athlete, hits like a truck, is capable of relatively technical boxing, can launch a lightning-fast high kick, and is a very effective wrestler when he wants to be, especially from the clinch.

Where it all falls apart for the intense Moldovan is the synthesis of those individual skills and the execution of anything resembling a coherent game plan. Even by the standards of light heavyweight—which my Sherdog colleague Devin Tejada once hilariously and accurately called “MMA’s low-IQ division”—Cutelaba stands out as a knucklehead. He is of course famous for his 2020 no contest against Magomed Ankalaev, in which he baited referee Kevin MacDonald into an unwarranted early stoppage by trying to play possum. (Note: While Macdonald rightfully caught some criticism for the call, if your game plan is to try and convince observers that you’re hurt badly, you can’t complain too hard when it works.) Even outside of that silliness, however, Cutelaba has repeatedly found ways to lose to less skilled, less talented fighters. You name it: completely neglecting his wrestling against fighters who should have been easy to take down; squandering his already limited gas tank by overswinging on every punch; committing grievous defensive errors as a result of that same brawling instinct, and the list goes on and on.

That brings us to UFC 315, where Cutelaba is set to face multiple time Cage Warriors champ Modestas Bukauskas in a fun undercard scrap. While his Octagon record stands at a mediocre 8-9-1 and the no contest, he has won back-to-back fights for the first time since 2017. As a generally entertaining fighter (to a fault, one might say) and the rare UFC athlete who is recognizable to casual fans despite not being a top contender, his job is probably safe no matter what happens on Saturday. However, if Cutelaba aspires to be anything more than “the guy who paints himself green for weigh-ins and tries to punch his opponent during the pre-fight staredown,” he would do well to stop goofing off and go win the winnable fights.

Adding to the pressure on Cutelaba is that “The Baltic Gladiator” is a perfect example of a fighter who has done just that. Bukauskas’ first UFC run saw him wash out at 1-3. He went back to Cage Warriors, where he won back his light heavyweight strap and went on a nice win streak, and since returning to the Octagon a little over two years ago, he has gone 4-1. The difference has been like night and day, and Bukauskas has done it without making radical changes in his basic skill set. He has simply grown in confidence, shown more poise, and begun fighting to his best advantage every time out. Cutelaba, whose power punching and power wrestling give him an obvious route to victory against the lanky kickboxer, should go and do likewise—the first three-fight win streak of his UFC career awaits.