Prime Picks: UFC Vegas 104 ‘Vettori vs. Dolidze 2’

The Ultimate Fighting Championship on Saturday wrangles a couple middleweights to rematch for unknown purposes, sitting atop an event that has some crazy betting lines. Seven of the 13 matches on the bill have a favorite at -350 or higher, and several of them are sorely out of whack. Join the UFC Fight Night 254 edition of Prime Picks, where we hold our collective noses to pick a repeat winner in the rematched headliner and shell out for a few underdogs primed for surprise victories.

Marvin Vettori (-160)

The book has been written about Italy’s Vettori. While he might not have championship upside, his overall skill set and physical tools allow him to hover around the Top 10 while winning one and dropping the next. Durable to a fault with extremely limited power and a penchant for getting things up close and personal, Vettori is what he is at this point. It was enough to get past Roman Dolidze two years ago, and it should be enough to beat him over five rounds. In fact, confidence in the Italian should be higher in this match than the first given the extra 10 minutes the two will have to dance—additional time that may not work to Dolidze’s advantage.

Dolidze’s majority decision loss to Nassourdine Imavov was a bit of an aberration, not from a performance perspective but because one judge had it close enough to make it a draw. It could be argued that Dolidze did not win a round, and the championship period for it being a headliner was not something he was prepared for. Massively muscled with a habit of throwing everything he has into a big strike or a dramatic takedown, the lactic acid builds up fast for the Georgian. Meanwhile, Vettori can go five hard rounds, whether in the driver’s seat or forced to back up for 25 minutes. Vettori can keep a pace where he stays in Dolidze’s face early and often, connecting frequently enough to stifle his more violent attempts of offense. It might look like more of the same, but there’s little to indicate based on recent outings that Vettori has lost a step or Dolidze has leveled up.

Ryan Spann (+140)

Based on Spann’s UFC career thus far, the former Top 10 light heavyweight is a tough guy to bet on. Whether it’s losing fights he should win, coming out with unexpected results in fights where he’s not favored or having something unfortunate happen to lead to a defeat, it’s all on his ledger. While he did end a losing streak by tapping a shopworn Ovince St. Preux in 2024, the biggest development is that Spann will no longer be engaging in what was likely a massive cut to 206 pounds. Recent photos have shown he’s a little less shredded than before, so those who plan to bet on him will have to hope his motivation is high. At the end of this heavyweight smash-’em-up derby, one man will be flirting with the Top 15, and if Spann is still a dangerous finisher with surprising power up in weight, he can spring the upset.

Until he fought Robelis Despaigne, Waldo Cortes-Acosta was a bit of a one-trick pony. The former baseball pitcher fought as if he were throwing fastballs in the form of his right hand. Despite his high volume relative to the division and fairly decent defensive striking prowess, his power did not measure up to his size. If Cortes-Acosta hit harder—his only knockout in the Octagon thus far is against Lukasz Brzeski—he would have likely been the pick, with the expectation that he knocks Spann’s block off. Instead, this should be the kind of fight where Spann can excel, because the Dominican has not shown to be the type who can plunk him. It’s not likely that Cortes-Acosta will bring the wresting from his last bout to this one for one major reason: Spann’s guillotine choke. One bad shot from “Salsa Boy” will almost certainly lead to his getting choked out, and that’s a very real possibility.

Carlos Vera (+550)

It’s hard to say what bettors were watching to install the debuting Josias Musasa as a -850 or higher favorite at this event. Coming out of the African Knockout circuit, the fighter who calls himself the “K.O. Wizard” is of the old mold of a chin-first brawler who lives and dies by the looping hook. Thus far, it has gotten him into the promotion, even though his qualifying bout against Otari Tanzilovi had a bit of contention to it. Other than that decision, it has been a slate full of knockouts against sorely overmatched foes for the Congo-based athlete. Vera, who lost in his own UFC debut, stands in his way, and he’s considerably more of a live dog than the lines indicate.

Ecuador’s Vera has a serious knock against him in that he’s already 37 years of age in a division that’s quite unkind to the elderly. He’s barely a means-to-an-end striker, using his swings to get in close proximity and then trying to wrangle opponents with his grappling. Rinya Nakamura completely shut him down in their matchup, amassing a bit under 13 minutes of control time in a real slog. Vera kept Nakamura honest enough by flirting with submissions and maintaining an active guard, but it was not nearly enough. This is a drastically different stylistic clash, as Musasa will only take it to the ground if someone gets knocked down. Otherwise, it’s the Quinton Jackson-described “throwing bungalows” tactic, with the type of offense that has a very low ceiling given how often Musasa can get hit back. Even if Vera is not the type to make his opponent pay on the feet, he can snatch up a guillotine or keep things tight to take the bombs lobbed by the African newcomer out of the equation. The ’dog flier is more reasonable than guessing that Musasa will become the first fighter to knock out the Ecuadorian, with that line hovering around -145.

Yuneisy Duben (+285)

This fight is an indictment on the UFC’s flyweight division and the matchmaking as a whole. No fighter who posts a pro record of 3-2, with two losses on the major circuit, should be a roughly -400 favorite against anyone on the roster. When that competitor amassed those three wins over foes that were a combined 6-16 with a no contest, it’s even more telling. It’s not to butter the bread of the Venezuelan, whose first five victories came against five women with no wins and no losses between them. This isn’t pretty, and it’s not a vote of confidence in Duben but rather a lack of faith in Carli Judice.

Judice may likely be in this position because her losing performances kept the fights close. Volume is the name of her game, with a surprising amount of cardio to back up long combinations over lengthy stretches. The southpaw has been fighting aggressively to a fault, believing that her chin will hold together longer than her opponent’s. This results in her being about as hittable as she is offensively active, which is just where Duben can shine. The Venezuelan swings for the bleachers, and her win over Shannon Clark was the result of a violent collision, a one-hitter quitter. The opportunity will present itself over the course of the 15-minute engagement for Duben to crash the pocket and load up on power, and landing flush a few times could change the course of the bout. At this line, it’s underdog or bust.