Prime Picks: UFC London ‘Edwards vs. Brady’

The UFC ships across the pond for its annual London pilgrimage, bringing with it a card appropriately loaded with local talent. Perhaps surprisingly, very few fighters from the United Kingdom are currently betting favorites on the main card, making several underdogs quite tantalizing. Join the UFC London edition of Prime Picks as we take advantage of the lopsided lineup to make four pitches for moneylines in the plus territory.

Leon Edwards (+135)

How is former champion Edwards an underdog in this main attraction in his home country? Has betting confidence fallen this far, this fast for the man that twice defeated Kamaru Usman—the second fight was a smidge over two years ago—that a once-beaten grappler in Sean Brady is expected by the betting public to prevail? If judging by how both men performed against future beltholder Belal Muhammad, Edwards was nullified while Brady was ground into a fine paste and rescued by Lukasz Bosacki. MMA math is not an indicator of performance, as situation matchups make the sport the wonder that it is today, but it has to count for something. Brady passed a few tests the last couple years to inspire faith in his abilities, most importantly going five hard rounds against a flamethrower in Gilbert Burns, but is it enough to install him with -160 odds? Prime Picks disagrees with this line.

Brady was at his suffocating best against Burns, grinding out the BJJ savant over five grueling rounds while racking up ample control time. This showed that Brady can indeed push a pace for 25 minutes, but it does not entirely answer what happens when he struggles to get the fight down or is forced to fight off his back foot with a long jab in his face. If Brady is able to do what Muhammad did against the Brit, he can succeed, but Muhammad is unique in this weight class in his ability to weaponize his cardio. Edwards has always presented as an accurate, low volume and low intensity boxer with a well-rounded game that can land takedowns as well as he can defend them. The southpaw has proven time and time again that five rounds is no great leap for him, and has shown over the years that when taken down he tends to get right back up. Brady will have to be perfect to win, while Edwards can do what he does to pocket rounds and outhustle his opponent to spring the upset.

Jan Blachowicz (+240)

There are definite questions on 42-year-old former champion Blachowicz in his return to action after a nearly two-year layoff. Some can make the argument that he did enough to defeat Alex Pereira in the Brazilian’s first effort to move up to 205 pounds, and his draw with Magomed Ankalaev verified his status as an elite contender at the weight class. This game is all about momentum, so while it makes sense that Carlos Ulberg is coming in around -300, the Polish fighter is an exceptionally live dog. While the age of 42 is a liability in the lower divisions, at 205 and 265, athletes tend to be able to compete longer, even with a lot of fight miles recorded.

The heavily favored Kiwi has feasted on opposition that largely came right at him to engage, resulting in fireworks for several of his recent UFC wins. It is no accident that he has won seven in a row, although when Alonzo Menifield charged him like a bull with his hands down, Ulberg made short work of him. Rather than a marauding berserker, the New Zealand native is taking on a talented counter striker that can land hard at the tail end of his punches and feet. The one inch in reach Blachowicz holds over Ulberg may feel like a foot when the Polish fighter is able to get off while backing away or leaning back. Additionally, Ulberg has a propensity for ducking in to engage, and Blachowicz celebrates his Polish power through his dangerous uppercut. When keeping to his preferred range, the former champ can cruise, especially if he lines up kicks to slow down the advancing “Black Jag.” While Ulberg could—and if the oddsmakers are correct, should—win, he cannot get careless or he will find himself face down.

Kevin Holland (+107)

While the previous two selections for plus money had a bit more bombast and confidence to them, we as fight fans know what we are getting in Holland now. Questions of his motivation loom large as he drops back down in weight for the first time in a couple years, as he is starting to fit into the mold akin to a primary school teacher telling a parent that the student “has so much potential.” The long, rangy striker loves flashy techniques, is proudly defensively porous and has takedown defense where calling it Swiss cheese would be an understatement. If Gunnar Nelson gets hold of him and wrangles “Trailblazer” to the ground, it would be absolutely zero shock—and that line of Nelson by submission is for the taking at +215.

It will be up to Holland to keep things standing up. By keeping his back away from the fence, not winding up in clinch exchanges and taking advantage of a mighty nine-inch disparity in the arms, Holland does have a clear and distinct path to victory. Nelson may be a grappler, but he starts every fight as a karateka. The wide stance and penchant for waiting for the right moment to strike results in plenty of lulls and awkward moments when standing, as he may be accurate but is quite noncommittal. Should Holland make the most of his physical tools, while not leaving himself exposed by, for example, leaving a kick out too long, he can leap back into the win column. If he decides to grapple, tear up the ticket and move on to the next match.

Marcin Tybura (+105)

Just like November, perennial heavyweight contender Tybura is forced to take on a surging, undefeated talent with power that dwindled when climbing the ranks. It was Jhonata Diniz that he defused and battered into a doctor stoppage at UFC 309, in what turned into the quintessential Tybura fight. Like so many of his losses, “Tybur” was clipped and put down early, only this time, his safety valve of grappling allowed him to turn the tables completely. It was not the most thrilling of performances from a viewing perspective, but it was super effective as he squashed his foe with every ounce of his 251-pound frame. Against Mick Parkin, Tybura faces a man that does not hit as hard as Diniz, and one that can lean on his developing wrestling to fill in some voids. It comes as a surprise that Tybura is the slight underdog when presented with this type of matchup.

As mentioned before, one of Tybura’s main weaknesses is his typically slow start, which allows opponents to get in on him and bust him in the chops. Whether he gets hurt on the feet and drummed out, or loses his inhibitions so badly that he practically falls into an armbar, the pathway to beating him is there. Tybura is a far cry from Eduardo Neves, however, and generally loses to the best the weight class has to offer. Parkin has not established himself as that type of a threat—a thumping of Lukasz Brzeski should not be a resounding win to which he hangs his hat—and strength of schedule plays a significant factor here. On paper, Tybura has beaten better, more composed and complete adversaries than Britain’s Parkin, and he still has the tools at the tender age of 39 to sap the strength out of the unbeaten man and get the job done. It might not be appointment viewing, but that has never been the game plan for “Tybur.” The Polish fighter is about as close to a trap fight as the division has to offer.