Preview: UFC Fight Night 118 ‘Cerrone vs. Till’

Featherweights

Andre Fili (16-5) vs. Artem Lobov (13-13-1, 1 NC)

ODDS: Fili (-170), Lobov (+150)

ANALYSIS: It sounds weird to say, given that he only ended up on a terrible season of “The Ultimate Fighter” due to his connections to Conor McGregor, owns a .500 record and looked completely out of his depth in his first two UFC bouts, but Lobov has genuinely improved. It was absurd that his last fight came in a UFC Fight Night headliner, let alone against a perennial top-10 talent like Cub Swanson, but “The Russian Hammer” won the first round against a far better fighter, utilizing newly found striking aggression, low kicks and improved wrestling. He is still incredibly hittable, as he just wades through opponents’ punches with his face, but Lobov being a +150 underdog is by no means silly. The 27-year-old Fili, after eight years as a pro and eight fights in the Octagon, is still too wild and unreliable for his own good. It is reflected in his actual fights, whether it is falling prey to the sharper boxing and footwork of Calvin Kattar, running into Yair Rodriguez’s epic flying head-kick KO or letting Godofredo Castro hit a flying triangle out of nowhere. It is also reflected in the fact that he has literally been a win-one-lose-one fighter since he signed with the UFC four years ago. “Touchy” Fili may never tame his wild tendencies, and that means he will struggle against any sort of consistent top-10 fighter. Nonetheless, the Team Alpha Male’s striking volume may force Lobov back into his counter-oriented instincts and tire him out, as Swanson did, even though this bout is only 15 minutes. His low kicks have improved, but Fili is the far better kicker and has nine inches of reach on the hittable Russian. While Lobov’s wrestling has become sharper, Fili is the better straight takedown artist and scrambler, giving him the chance to take dominant positions to effect offense. Fili fights mostly from kicking range and wins a decision, continuing his win-one-lose-one antics. However, Lobov’s legitimately improved game gives him a more real shot at pulling off the upset than anyone could have imagined two years ago.

Welterweights

Warlley Alves (10-2) vs. Salim Touahri (10-1)

ODDS: Alves (-300), Touahri (+250)

ANALYSIS: Talk about the bloom coming off of the rose. Two years ago when he was a 10-0 “Ultimate Fighter” winner, Alves looked like a surefire top-10 welterweight. Now, he enters the cage as a -300 while taking on a late-replacement opponent on just days’ notice after the withdrawal of British vet Jim Wallhead. The X-Gym product’s back-to-back losses to Bryan Barberena and Kamaru Usman are worthy for consideration, but as we have come to find out, Barberena is actually a legitimate welterweight and tough as nails, while Usman is at worst a borderline top-10 contender with the wrestling to thwart Alves. The Brazilian’s biggest problem in those losses, other than tough matchmaking, was his tendency to rely too much on his powerful offense early in bouts, emptying his gas tank within seven to eight minutes. Touahri is a plus-athlete and a fantastic fight finisher. He establishes himself in the opponent’s face, and though he wings his punches, he has a proper jab, power in both hands, throws in combination and can punctuate said combos with knees. He is also a solid ground-and-pounder and can dish out big damage with similar punch combos while working on top. He is, broadly, a technical brawler. However, his wide-arcing punches should allow Alves to slip in counters early, and he is hardly the southpaw slugger Barberena has proven to be. Likewise, he is a competent wrestler but nowhere near Usman’s level. Combine that with his own questionable gas tank and largely meager opposition, and this bout plays favorably for the Brazilian. Alves hits Touahri, hurts him and either finishes with strikes or locks up his trademark, sudden guillotine choke for the stoppage in the first seven minutes.

Featherweights

Felipe Arantes (18-8-1) vs. Josh Emmett (11-1)

ODDS: Emmett (-350), Arantes (+290)

ANALYSIS: Emmett suffered the first loss of his pro career at UFC 210 in April, dropping a righteous split decision to Desmond Green. Whether it is the smart solution or not, the Team Alpha Male product will return to 145 pounds for the first time in nearly four years to take on Arantes, who will be moving back up to featherweight for the first time in three years, having gone 2-1 in his last three UFC bouts at 135 pounds. Those implicit notions of size should factor in here. Arantes is an inch or so taller than Emmett, but at featherweight, it should be obvious that the American is the more robust fighter. More importantly, the difference in physical strength should play into the style matchup. Part of why Arantes has been able to stick around in the UFC is his difficult blend of crafty kicking offense and a dynamic sweep-and-submit grappling game. Emmett is a higher volume striker than “Sertanejo,” pressing forward behind tight boxing combinations to set up his rock-solid wrestling. Against Green, Emmett was taught a tough lesson by a sharp defensive wrestler with sharper, more powerful boxing and could not get his game going. In this case, Emmett’s attack should put Arantes on his back foot and limit his kicking. If the Brazilian does look to kick, Emmett will snap up his legs and tackle him, much like what happened to Arantes when he lost a split decision to Erik Perez in November. From there, it is all about whether Arantes can submit Emmett from his back or consistently sweep to dominant positions. Given Emmett’s strength and Team Alpha Male stylings, it seems unlikely. This will be a scrappy, scrambling 15 minutes, but Emmett ultimately will get his hand raised in his 145-pound return.

Women’s Bantamweights

Aspen Ladd (5-0) vs. Lina Lansberg (7-2)

ODDS: Ladd (-235), Lansberg (+195)

ANALYSIS: Sweden’s Lansberg has been christened the “The Elbow Princess,” and in truth, Lansberg’s clinch game is rugged and elbow-heavy. The undefeated 22-year-old Ladd -- whether or not it is her prerogative -- may spiritually snatch that crown in a fight that should have some tough moments in close quarters. Ladd is far from a defensive wiz at this point in her young career, though it does bear mentioning that she posted an 8-1 amateur mark, with her lone loss coming via decision to top prospect Cynthia Calvillo. Her best defense remains her offense, in the form of her dauntless pressure behind a crisp jab and varied lead left hook. Her best skills remain on top, where she can batter women with punches and elbows to open up mercy-kill submissions for the finish, but those phases are set up by her smothering striking. Lansberg is hardly a defensive stalwart, either. Yes, her staggering 8.14 significant strikes absorbed per minute statistic is influenced by her debut blowout loss to Cristiane “Cyborg” Justino, but she also ate 99 significant strikes, 163 in total, in her win over Lucie Pudilova in March. Lansberg is at her best in close range, where she can cover up her shoddy defense, land her trademark elbows in close and set up takedowns -- a part of her inside game that is more developed than the California-based prospect, who still struggles at times to get bouts to the mat with body locks and headlock throws. Nonetheless, despite her ability to take a licking and keep ticking, as well as a more varied clinch game, Lansberg’s inability to protect her face while standing, especially from her opponent’s lead hand, is going to be a huge problem. Never mind if Ladd can claim top position early and often. Ladd stays unbeaten on points and gets a tough, valuable learning experience in the process.