Preview: UFC 225 ‘Whittaker vs. Romero 2’

Heavyweights:
Alistair Overeem (43-16) vs. Curtis Blaydes (9-1)
Odds: Blaydes (-165), Overeem (+145)

Speaking of heavyweight veterans with durability issues, Overeem is returning from his vicious -- and viciously memeified -- knockout loss to Francis Ngannou in December. Fortunately for the Jackson-Wink rep, Blaydes isn’t going to try to test Overeem’s chin again until he can plant him on his back. The former junior college national champion wrestler will look to penetrate the Dutchman’s solid takedown defense like few have before. The Elevation Fight Team member took some gnarly shots from Mark Hunt in his last bout, but even rocked, he was able to change levels for takedowns. Blaydes’ chin and ability to recover are stellar, and he may need them against “The Demolition Man.” Overeem has an elite kickboxing pedigree, but has been tentative to engage wrestling-minded opponents in the past, and his output in general has waned as he’s aged. He will keep his hands low and feint much more than actually throw, and he hasn’t given up more than one takedown in a fight in forever. But there are few wrestlers at heavyweight with the ability, willingness, and cardio to ground nearly any opponent, and Blaydes is on the short list. The pair are also on divergent physical trajectories -- Blaydes is still only 27 -- so I will side with “Razor” by decision.

Strawweights:
Claudia Gadelha (15-3) vs. Carla Esparza (13-4)
Odds: Gadelha (-550), Esparza (+425)

The line on this fight feels wide, but I’m with Gadelha being a righteous favorite. Her biggest flaw is cardio, and that seems unlikely to change unless she moves up to flyweight. The Brazilian is looking to rebound from a shellacking at the hands of Jessica Andrade. The bloodbath was competitive early, with Gadelha enjoying a boxing and even a wrestling edge. But she made the mistake of tying up with the hulking “Piledriver” and got slammed and outmuscled while fading after the midpoint of the fight. But she will not have to worry about that against Esparza, as Gadelha will once again enjoy all the physical advantages that make her such a difficult matchup in a three-round fight. Esparza showed off new facets to her striking game against Cynthia Calvillo, namely kicks and improved head movement, but she still isn’t very comfortable mixing it up in the pocket. The Colin Oyama disciple is a wrestle-grappler first and foremost, and she will find the sledding tough against the bricked-up Brazilian. Gadelha bullies Esparza and nabs a decision.

Featherweights:
Ricardo Lamas (18-6) vs. Mirsad Bektic (12-1)
Odds: Bektic (-240), Lamas (+200)

This is a big test for Bektic to see if he is ready to graduate from prospect to bona fide contender. He already suffered his prospect loss in devastating fashion 15 months ago, calling his cardio and his chin into question. The ATT and Tristar Gym rep rebounded by destroying an overmatched Godofredo Castro inside three minutes. What is not in question is how ridiculously powerful and explosive the Bosnian-American is. His right hand, takedowns and ground-and-pound are absolutely thunderous. Bektic wants to get on top and hammer his opponent until they give up their back for a mercy-kill submission or the ref pulls him off. The dominant nature of many of his fights means there are still questions to be answered about his skill set moving forward, and hopefully Lamas is able to ask some of them. The former title challenger is rebounding from his own shocking knockout loss to Josh Emmett six months ago. Lamas is well-rounded and an opportunistic finisher, particularly with his submissions. The Top Notch Fitness stalwart is a BJJ black belt and former collegiate wrestler, so he can compete or excel anywhere the fight goes. Lamas doesn’t tend to throw at a very high rate, putting full power into most of his shots, but he has a diverse kicking arsenal to complement his powerful cross and hooks. Leg kicks and pressure have tended to give him problems in the past, upsetting his rhythm. Bektic to figures to pressure, so we’ll see how Lamas deals with it. Despite the loss to Emmett, who we’ve since seen is quality but not elite, Lamas tends to lose to only the best at featherweight. I’m not sure if Bektic is there yet. His explosion is off the charts, but I’m curious to see how he deals with Lamas’ submission game. I expect Lamas to be on bottom or against the cage for most of this fight, though, so I’ll say Bektic wins by decision.

Heavyweights:
Rashad Coulter (8-3) vs. Chris de la Rocha (4-2)
Odds: Coulter (-175), de la Rocha (+155)

Two heavyweights will bang it out to kick off the televised portion of the card. Both men are 0-2 in the UFC so far, suffering knockouts in all four combined losses. Both made their debuts on short notice against more-established fighters and fell in their sophomore efforts to more highly touted prospects. But both men are also tough and perfectly willing to engage in a firefight. De la Rocha is 39 but has only been fighting professionally for four and a half years, with a whole year passing since his last bout with Adam Milstead. The Washington native showed improved head movement and combination punching in that bout, but he still gets hit cleanly a lot. As he absorbs damage, his hands start to drop and he tends to get hit even more cleanly. De la Rocha is probably safest on the mat, where he can put his BJJ purple belt to use, but his wrestling is only so-so. Coulter looks to be a better athlete, having played football for much of his life. “The Daywalker” has faster hands, and that what this matchup comes down to for me. He’s been on the receiving end of some vicious leg kicks that have really hampered him, and we haven’t seen much of his wrestling and grappling. Those are avenues de la Rocha could explore, but I’m going with the Fortis MMA product to put hands on him more consistently. Coulter by second-round TKO is the pick.

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