Preview: UFC 225 ‘Whittaker vs. Romero 2’

Light Heavyweights:
Rashad Evans (19-7-1) vs. Anthony Smith (28-13)
Odds: Smith (-320), Evans (+260)

Seeing the odds on this fight is weird, but they make sense in 2018. Evans still has a path to victory; the question is whether his body will cooperate. “Suga” is on a four-fight losing streak bouncing between 185 and 205, and his last win was four and a half years ago against Chael Sonnen. Nothing about that sentence is good. Injuries and age have sapped the former light heavyweight champion of his explosion and his confidence, making him tentative to throw. He has also been cursed to fight four fighters with exceptional takedown defense. That will not be the case against Smith. “Lionheart” is also moving up to light heavyweight after suffering a knockout loss to Thiago Santos. At 6’4” he certainly has the frame for it. Smith’s wrestling and get-ups aren’t great, so he can be taken down, controlled, and beaten up at times. The Disorderly Conduct rep is always aggressive, and that extends to when he’s on his back as well, where he will throw elbows and hunt for submissions or sweeps. On the feet Smith has a diverse muay Thai game, with hard punches and kicks to all levels and an absolutely savage clinch. He doesn’t always do a good job using his reach, being perfectly willing to step inside and let hooks and standing elbows go. Evans can’t match Smith’s aggression and physicality at range, so he’ll need to lay-and-pray his way to a decision, most likely. I can’t trust the Henri Hooft student’s body to hold up or allow him to do what his brain tells him he should be able to do at this point. Smith by third-round TKO is the pick.

Flyweights:
Joseph Benavidez (25-4) vs. Sergio Pettis (16-3)
Odds: Benavidez (-255), Pettis (+215)

Benavidez, like Overeem, is unamused by his placement on this card given his ranking, and it’s hard to blame him. “Joey B” is one of the most consistent and consistently entertaining fighters in UFC history. His 25-4 record is stellar, and it is mind-blowing that he has lost only to Dominick Cruz and Demetrious Johnson. The Duane Ludwig protégé is 18 months removed from a narrow and controversial win over fellow TUF coach Henry Cejudo, a knee injury nixing a June 2017 bout with Ben Nguyen. Benavidez has been consistently dominant because he is so well-rounded, durable, and dangerous everywhere. He can switch stances while delivering combinations of punches punctuated by leg and high kicks, and he will lunge in with a knee to the body and follow it up immediately with punches. His wrestling is solid if unspectacular, but he is nearly impossible to hold down. His front headlock is a major deterrent as well. Pettis is still somehow only 24 years old, with half a decade of UFC experience under his belt. The Roufusport product is an extremely smooth, technical, and varied kickboxer. He doesn’t pack a ton of pop, but he manages distance well, throws in high volume, and is fairly durable. His Achilles heel has been his defensive wrestling, evidenced by getting ground out by Cejudo in his last outing. In the past, the younger Pettis has been too content to play off his back, and though he’s shown greater urgency about getting back up, it didn’t matter against Cejudo. Benavidez lands harder on the feet and takes Pettis down a few times to seal a competitive decision win.

Lightweights:
Clay Guida (34-17) vs. Charles Oliveira (22-8)
Odds: Oliveira (-155), Guida (+135)

Oliveira is stepping in on short notice for an injured Bobby Green. That clouds my view of this fight somewhat, as he has had trouble with the scale in the past. He is also returning from one of the most brutal ground-and-pound knockouts I’ve ever seen, succumbing to elbows from Paul Felder. The Brazilian is hyper-aggressive, making his bouts entertaining but also short. “Do Bronx” has an upright muay Thai style on the feet, making his body and legs inviting targets. But he tends to stalk forward behind front and leg kicks until he gets to the clinch, where he can uncork nasty knees and elbows. His wrestling is dogged and surprisingly effective, and once on the ground, his submission attempts are relentless, creative, and merciless. His lack of durability and tendency to give up position in favor of submission means he has been tapped out several times as well. Guida has been somewhat resurgent of late, and it seems like Team Alpha Male has had a lot to do with that. His striking is more authoritative now and helps give his pressure some teeth, rather than having to rely on feinting and pawing so much. Guida generally prefers to work takedowns, positional control, and ground-and-pound. If he pursues such an avenue against Oliveira, he’ll be putting himself in severe danger. Still, the Brazilian’s defense and fragility are such that he is difficult to trust. Look for this to end before the final bell, either with an Oliveira submission early or a Guida TKO a bit later. I’m picking the latter.

Featherweights:
Mike Santiago (20-11) vs. Dan Ige (8-2)
Odds: Ige (-135), Santiago (+115)

This bout should produce action if nothing else. Both men are transplants from Dana White’s Tuesday Night Contender Series, but both have gone winless in the UFC proper. Santiago is 29, but with more than 30 fights under his belt, he’s more seasoned journeyman than prospect. The Top Notch Fitness product has a brown belt in BJJ and a propensity for aggression, both on the feet and on the mat. The southpaw can get a bit wild at times, but his overhand left and right hook pack heat. If he can get his man stuck on the cage, Santiago can rib-roast with the best of them, but he’s typically looking to get the fight to the mat. He’ll follow a hard combination of punches with a shot, but his wrestling is more strength-based than extremely technical. Santiago has run into problems in recent fights with his takedown defense and his willingness to mix it up with superior grapplers. He had a lot of early success grappling with Mads Burnell, but he tires himself out swinging for the fences and powering out of bad positions. He could run into a similar problem against Ige, another BJJ black belt. Ige isn’t a great striker, though he has some pop. His head is too stationary and he typically lunges forward with one shot at a time. When he was unable to take Julio Arce down consistently, Arce boxed him up for the duration of the fight. Santiago might be able to sprawl-and-brawl his way to a win here, but his willingness to mix it up everywhere will be his downfall again. Ige gets his wrestling and superior positional control going on his way to a decision win.

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