Preview: UFC on ESPN 54 ‘Blanchfield vs. Fiorot’

Featherweights

Bill Algeo (18-7, 5-3 UFC) vs. Kyle Nelson (15-5-1, 3-4-1 UFC)

ODDS: Algeo (-225), Nelson (+185)

Nelson’s breakout was one of the most pleasant surprises of 2023. “The Monster” made his UFC debut in 2018 in a late-notice spot against Diego Ferreira—a performance that would essentially preview most of Nelson’s career in the time since. Nelson got off to a hot start and nearly pulled off the upset but then quickly faded and got finished in the second round. Nelson’s fights would continue to follow that script as he bounced between featherweight and lightweight. He would show knockout power and a crushing wrestling game to start, but at some point, he would break in the face of resistance and suffer a late finish. The book seemed written on Nelson heading into 2023—to the point that it was a bit surprising he was still on the roster—but everything unexpectedly clicked in his last two fights. He was helped by Blake Bilder’s limited game and Fernando Padilla’s unwillingness to turn up the pace, but Nelson fought a smart fight, stayed patient and put together three rounds of strong work each time, winning two fights that he likely would have lost at any other point in his career. Now, Nelson needs to prove he has gotten over his old issues once again.

Algeo’s entire game centers around breaking his opponents. “Senor Perfecto” has a long frame and the skill that should make him an effective range striker, but he would much rather march forward and swamp his opposition, often initiating some wrestling and grappling scrambles in the process. There are times when Algeo can be stalled out at a physical or technical level, but he is both dogged and durable, so even his wins have seen his opponents go through 15 minutes of hell. There is a chance that Nelson is the stronger man and can outwrestle Algeo, but it seems unlikely that the Canadian can consistently maintain a level of control; and Algeo’s willingness to keep pouring on pressure and volume should be increasingly effective as the fight goes on. Even so, it is a testament to Nelson’s improvement that the call is for Algeo to beat him but not break him. The pick is Algeo via decision.

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Blanchfield vs. Fiorot
Luque vs. Buckley
Silva vs. Weidman
Ruziboev vs. Dumas
Algeo vs. Nelson
Njokuani vs. McKee
The Prelims