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Women’s Flyweights

Liz Carmouche (12-6) vs. Lucie Pudilova (8-3)

ODDS: Carmouche (-125), Pudilova (-105)

When the UFC announced its debut card in Prague, Pudilova was an obvious choice to be on it as the only Czech fighter on the roster. Pudilova had a quietly successful run in the lower reaches of the UFC’s bantamweight division, but it was a loss that served as her breakthrough, as she put on an absolute war with Irene Aldana at UFC 228 in September. Pudilova is always ridiculously aggressive to begin with, but in that fight, she found a willing dance partner, and the result was 15 minutes of well-matched non-stop violence. This follow-up effort is a bit odd from everyone involved. Pudilova, who was already reedy at bantamweight, is surprisingly making the cut down to 125 pounds, and the UFC decided to give her far from a hometown showcase, as she draws a tough veteran in Carmouche.

Carmouche will always be known for her part in UFC history, as she was the challenger to Ronda Rousey in the promotion’s first fight between women. Since then, it has been a frustrating run for the “Girl-Rilla,” as she has mixed inconsistent results with long injury layoffs. At her best, Carmouche is a strong grinder, but even then, she is not as effective as she should be. She often favors strength over technique and does not regard her defense much, so she finds herself in a surprising amount of trouble, even in situations where she should have the advantage. Add in that Carmouche sometimes falls in love with her striking to much, and the overall package is not quite what it should be, even if she is coming off of an impressive win over Jennifer Maia. With that said, the women’s flyweight division is wide open and Carmouche has some name recognition, so it may not take much for her to suddenly find herself back in a title picture.

This is a mismatch at first blush, but there is some logic to the pairing. Carmouche can often struggle against opponents who bring a ton of pressure, so Pudilova’s aggressive approach may cause some problems. However, even if Pudilova keeps charging forward, it is hard to see that as anything but an invitation for Carmouche to grab onto a clinch and grind her out. Opponents can sometimes reverse things on Carmouche, but Pudilova does not seem capable of doing so; it would be iffy at 135 pounds, but given that Pudilova is a thin bantamweight making her first cut to flyweight, there is a concern that she may weaken herself past the point of being effective. This really is a waste of Pudilova. This is a tough fight for her in front of her home crowd, and on top of that, Carmouche does not even look like she will indulge Pudilova in a fun fight. The pick is Carmouche via decision.

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