Preview: UFC on ESPN 53 ‘Ribas vs. Namajunas’

Middleweights

Edmen Shahbazyan (12-4, 5-4 UFC) vs. A.J. Dobson (7-2, 1-2 UFC)

ODDS: Shahbazyan (-198), Dobson (+164)

When Shahbazyan showed up on Dana White’s Contender Series in 2018, it was easy to write him off. Ronda Rousey being his manager at the time likely helped get him the spot, and Shahbazyan ran through a particularly weak level of competition to get there. No matter how Shahbazyan got the opportunity, he took advantage of it in a big way. The next year and change saw him establish himself as one of the most electric prospects in the sport, scoring three quick finishes as part of a four-fight winning streak that marked him as a potential contender heading into 2020. Then the wheels fell off, as Shahbazyan suddenly found himself unable to compete in deeper waters. The hot starts were still there, and while Shahbazyan had previously shown a control-heavy wrestling game as a backup plan to grind things out, it failed against better competition and caused him to absolutely implode. Shahbazyan also did not get many steps back in his level of competition, so after a 2021 loss to Nassourdine Imavov, it was a nice sign that he took over a year off to regroup and retool. Frankly, it is hard to tell how well that process has gone. Dalcha Lungiambula was a relative layup of an opponent that allowed Shahbazyan to fight sharply and effectively, and then he was thrown back into the fire for a loss against Anthony Hernandez—the type of fast-paced grinder who would have beaten Shahbazyan at most points during his UFC career. Shahbazyan now takes on Dobson in a fight that likely comes down to how well the Strong Style Fight Team product has put things together.

Dobson has all the skills to get this victory but has yet to show the necessary consistency. A professional since 2016, Dobson has the type of broad but not particularly deep game of a much younger fighter, and he hit a wall hard after earning a contract on DWCS. Faced with some effective specialists, Dobson never really found a groove and got comfortable during the course of his fights, looking tentative and coasting to some clear losses. However, a switch in camps ahead of an August bout with Tafon Nchukwi might have paid some dividends. It was not a barnburner by any standard, but Dobson put together three solid rounds to score a decision in what was clearly the most consistent performance of his career. That is enough to give Dobson the nod here, though Shahbazyan could just as easily hang on for a decision. The Armenian-American figures to get off to a successful start, and with Dobson not being a standout wrestler, Shahbazyan grinding his way to victory is certainly possible. In a coinflip, the pick is Dobson via decision.

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Ribas vs. Namajunas
Williams vs. Tafa
Shahbazyan vs. Dobson
Talbott vs. Saaiman
Quarantillo vs. Zalal
Padilla vs. Pajuelo
The Prelims