Preview: UFC 266 ‘Volkanovski vs. Ortega’

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Welterweights

NR | Nick Diaz (26-9, 7-6 UFC) vs. NR | Robbie Lawler (28-15, 13-9 UFC)

ODDS: Diaz (-110), Lawler (-110)

It is entirely a question mark as to what Diaz can offer at this point in his career, as he comes back to a landscape entirely different from the one that he left after losing a memorable bout to Anderson Silva on Jan. 31, 2015. At that point, he was still the bigger deal of the two Diaz brothers, embodying the signature swagger that his younger sibling would later perfect through a posturing and trash-talking that reached both a level of absurdity and intimidation. It also helped that for most of the past few years, Diz had been winning and winning big. He left the UFC in 2006 on a three-fight winning streak, then dropped only one of his next 14 fights. That included an all-time classic against Takanori Gomi in 2007—the result was naturally overturned due to Diaz failing a marijuana test—and a loss to K.J. Noons that followed the typical Diaz playbook, discrediting the win—in this case due to a cut stoppage—before eventually getting a chance at redemption in a 2010 decision victory. By 2011, Diaz was in position for a much-anticipated return to the UFC after it absorbed Strikeforce, at which point the promotion immediately went for the money bout against then-champion Georges St-Pierre. Diaz was later pulled from the match due to constantly missing press obligations, which only further added to his reputation as an iconoclast at a time when the UFC was full of company men. Diaz instead wound up facing B.J. Penn at UFC 137, where he put on a one-sided victory that currently stands as the last win of his career. A St. Pierre fight seemed like the next obvious option, but an injury to the champion instead led to Diaz facing Carlos Condit for an interim belt in what figured to be a violent affair. Condit won the bout for a shot at St. Pierre, but Diaz still came out of the fight unscathed. Condit’s relatively mindful approach led Diaz to claim a moral victory by being the more willing fighter to press the action, and his trash-talking at St. Pierre afterwards still led to everyone deciding that would be the most marketable fight after the Canadian beat Condit. That fight did eventually happen and resulted in a one-sided win for St. Pierre that still did little to damage Diaz’s reputation. A year-plus break was followed by the Silva fight, which saw Diaz make a memorable impact with his posturing and histrionics in the first round. However, a mostly workmanlike Silva win saw the Brazilian legend work back from a broken leg. Things were not exactly trending in the right direction for Diaz six and a half years ago, so this long break is either exactly what he needed or a terrible idea. At least he gets to face a peer and a familiar opponent in his return.

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It has been 17 and a half years since the first fight between Diaz and Lawler, which served as the breakout performance of the former and an early downfall for the latter. Up to that point, Lawler had a reputation for violence and was thought of as a potential champion in the near future, which made it an embarrassing loss when Diaz, mostly regarded as a grappler, knocked him out 91 seconds into the second round. Lawler was out of the UFC with one more loss and then went on to the journeyman portion of his career, eventually landing in Strikeforce and settling in on the middle of its cards. With Strikeforce’s sale to the UFC opening the path for Lawler’s return to the Octagon in 2013, it figured to be little more than an interesting footnote and a reminder of an era gone by. Instead, Lawler started a run up the ladder that culminated in a reign as the UFC’s welterweight champion. Lawler was not a huge box-office draw, but beyond the narrative of the failed prospect turned violent veteran finding himself and becoming a champion, his reign was a critical success for fight fans. His title-earning win over Johny Hendricks and defenses against Condit and Rory MacDonald were each epic wars, with the latter two among the greatest fights of all-time. The good times quickly ended against Tyron Woodley, who knocked out Lawler in a shade over two minutes; and “Ruthless Robbie” has mostly been an afterthought since. There are still bursts of violence, but the legend of the Condit fight has only built with the narrative that both men basically gave the last of themselves as elite fighters in pursuit of the victory. Lawler's last win, over Donald Cerrone in 2017, is a stark example of where he now resides. He clearly took the decision but did so despite essentially taking the second round off in order to better conserve himself and pour on the offense in the other two periods. Add in age and the fact that Lawler has been matched against younger, stronger and more relentless opposition, and there has been a lot of hope for his not quickly getting drowned in a slog of a fight. At least Lawler is facing a peer, though it is impossible to know exactly what to expect.

There is a chance this Diaz comeback goes horribly wrong, but this is still a winnable fight. Like his younger brother before him, Diaz managed to negotiate a five-round non-title fight, leveraging the cardio that has always been a family signature. In today’s landscape of the sport, Diaz’s cardio and pace is not particularly exceptional by modern standards, which figures to be a problem going forward but not here. Lawler is essentially a fighter still fighting in Diaz’s era. If Diaz can press a pace for five rounds, that may simply be enough to beat Lawler at this point, as the former champion has a few good rounds in him but has struggled to keep up his interest and pace for 15 minutes, let alone 25. That might be reason enough to pick Diaz, but it is still hard to have any faith in him at 38 years old and with over six and a half years out of the sport. The 2015 version of Diaz showed enough to likely beat the 2020 iteration of Lawler, but the 2021 edition has to prove it first. Essentially by default, the pick is Lawler via decision.

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