Preview: UFC Vegas 103 ‘Kape vs. Almabayev’

The Ultimate Fighting Championship on Saturday will kick off the month of March in its return to the UFC Apex in Las Vegas with UFC Fight Night 253. The flyweight headliner between Manel Kape and Asu Almabayev could be boom or bust in terms of excitement, but there are clear highlights elsewhere on the main draw, namely a lightweight showcase pitting Nasrat Haqparast and Esteban Ribovics. Otherwise, the card has been hurt by some confusing bout order decisions—it remains unclear why Cody Brundage and Julian Marquez got the nod for co-main event duty—but there are still some other things to like. It will be interesting to see Hyder Amil attempt to solve the William Gomis puzzle, and Mario Pinto could be a heavyweight prospect worth watching.

Now to the UFC Fight Night 253 ‘Kape vs. Almabayev’ preview:

Flyweights

Manel Kape (20-7, 5-3 UFC) vs. Asu Almabayev (21-2, 4-0 UFC)

ODDS: Kape (-205), Almabayev (+170)

After some reshuffling, the main event for this card has landed on a fascinating flyweight bout that hopefully winds up entertaining in practice. Of course, that description applies to most fights involving Kape, who has one of the most impressive highlight reels in the division but is prone to some underwhelming performances. That has been true going back to his years in Japan, where “Starboy” first broke out. He had his fair share of losses, but his wins were particularly memorable, most notably the knockout of Kai Asakura in 2019 that subsequently earned him a UFC contract. Kape didn’t wind up debuting until 2021, at which point his first two fights—losses to Alexandre Pantoja and Matheus Nicolau—showed the defining flaws in his game. He’s electric in moments but spends too much time posturing and picking his shots, allowing opponents to win rounds on volume as long as Kape doesn’t land one or two fight-changing blows. Kape subsequently had a stretch where he turned the pressure up just enough to reel off four straight wins—albeit against some opponents that forced him to pick up the pace—but a 2024 bout against Muhammad Mokaev was a stark reminder that he hasn’t changed his game all that much. The two combined for a grudge match that was more bark than bite, with Mokaev winning a fight that didn’t seem to do much for anyone. The good news for Kape? His highs are so high that he can easily get everyone excited about him once again with one strong performance. Indeed, his follow-up effort to the Mokaev loss was a shellacking of Bruno Silvahat seemingly has him right back in title contention. Kape was initially slated to take on Brandon Royval in a fight that certainly would have earned him a title shot with a win, but he now has to turn back a rising Kazakh prospect in Almabayev.

Almabayev could prove to be a championship-level fighter, but it’s a bit disappointing that he has proven to be less of a wrecking ball than expected in his rise through the ranks. Almabayev’s UFC debut was quite impressive, as he showed off the lightning-fast wrestling that made him a regional standout ahead of a second-round submission of Ode Osbourne. Since then, the good news is that Almabayev’s wrestling has continued to be a high-level weapon. The bad news? All of the dynamism surrounding his game has dried up against better competition. His striking hasn’t been much of a factor, and Almabayev’s success has come through grinding and control-heavy performances that haven’t been particularly exciting. Still, a win over Nicolau in October was an impressive result and has earned him this shot, even if it’s unclear what Almabayev will be able to accomplish. Kape hasn’t traditionally been much of a wrestler. However, assuming Almabayev is once again forced to lean on a control-heavy approach, Kape could be able to win rounds on the back of one or two huge moments of offense that outweigh his counterpart’s wrestling. That’s the call here, even if it might not be particularly entertaining to watch. The pick is Kape via decision.

Jump To »
Kape vs. Almabayev
Brundage vs. Marquez
Ribovics vs. Haqparast
Pinto vs. Lane
Gomis vs. Amil
Barlow vs. Patterson
The Prelims