Preview: UFC Fight Night ‘Lewis vs. Hunt’

Lightweights

Damien Brown (17-9) vs. Vinc Pichel (9-1): Pichel is probably best remembered as the guy Rustam Khabilov mistook for a grappling dummy in 2012 before proceeding to suplex him into oblivion. It is an honest mistake, but the fact that he has not fought in over three years makes it all too easy to forget that Pichel actually put together a respectable 2-1 record in the UFC, that after winning three of his four bouts on Season 15 of “The Ultimate Fighter.” With power in both hands, Pichel is a threat on the feet, but he actually specializes in delivering punishment on the ground, slicing through his opponent’s guard before posturing up and raining down punches. At 34 years old and with a history of injuries, Pichel could come back from his lengthy hiatus rejuvenated, or he could have a thick layer of rust to shake off. Brown will certainly test Pichel’s comfort in the cage. Nominally a submission specialist, Brown showed in his first-round TKO of Cesar Arzamendia that his hands are more than heavy enough to get the job done on the feet, as well; and while Brown is not much on defense, he is a creative combination puncher with quick hands and feet. Moreover, his striking technique is improving with each new fight. Brown is a fast starter who sometimes struggles to manage his stamina as the fight wears on, and while Pichel used to get better round-by-round, it is difficult to trust him after such a long layoff. Brown by unanimous decision is the pick.

Flyweights

John Moraga (16-6) vs. Ashkan Mokhtarian (13-1): Though the list of people who care is undoubtedly short, I for one am pleased that Moraga is getting another shot in the UFC despite three straight losses. At his best, Moraga is a sharp wrestle-boxer and a keen opportunist. At his worst, he is still a stiff test for young, inexperienced fighters. UFC newcomer Mokhtarian is not young, but he is certainly inexperienced. Despite having fought professionally for over five years now, Australia’s Mokhtarian has never really faced a quality opponent. He has a large frame for the flyweight division but seems to rely on muscle more than technique in most phases. It must be said: There is little footage of Mokhtarian’s recent fights online, so it is possible he has made considerable strides in the last few years. Based on extant footage, however, Mokhtarian seems stiff and, technically speaking, rather crude. Moraga may be nearing the end of his run -- the less said of his flat performance against Matheus Nicolau Pereira the better -- but experience has endowed him with a well-rounded game and the composure to make it work even under duress. Mokhtarian’s all-but-empty record suggests Moraga may have ample opportunity to surprise him. Moraga by second-round submission is the pick.

Welterweights

Dominique Steele (14-8) vs. Luke Jumeau (11-3): Steele’s flash knockout at the hands of Zak Cummings was cut-and-dry, but his other two losses in the UFC have been anything but. The Cincinnatian had strong cases for victory against both Court McGee and Danny Roberts, two credible opponents who felt Steele’s power and had to fight tooth-and-nail to defeat him via close decision. A strong, well-conditioned fighter with a well-rounded game, Steele’s only glaring weakness is his unfortunate habit of being caught cold by power punchers in the first round. New Zealand’s Jumeau does have a few impressive early finishes to his name, but Steele will be the most experienced opponent he has ever faced. That is not an insurmountable hurdle, but it will probably give Steele the perspicacity to see through Jumeau’s one-dimensional striking, which consists mostly of a few different variations on the overhand right. Steele is a willing wrestler and one who relies more on strength than on technique, so Jumeau may find an opportunity on the ground if he manages to sprawl on a takedown. Steele has never been submitted, however, and his athletic scrambling makes it unlikely that Jumeau will be able to keep him down. The pick is Steele by unanimous decision.

Welterweights

Kiichi Kunimoto (18-6-2) vs. Zak Ottow (14-4): Ottow raised some eyebrows when he beat veteran Joshua Burkman in his short-notice UFC debut. The victory was the result of nothing so much as rugged well-roundedness. Ottow is a capable wrestler and a reasonably technical if unremarkable kickboxer. Against the hittable Kunimoto, Ottow should have little difficulty keeping the fight standing, where his controlled technique will show. Nonetheless, Kunimoto proved during an improbable three-fight winning streak in the UFC that he is teak tough and long on heart. He will not take shots unanswered if he can help it. None of his UFC wins, however, were particularly clean. One was a questionable decision, if not an out-and-out robbery, and another a victory by disqualification. Ottow may have had a hard time dealing with the awkward craft of Sergio Moraes in his sophomore effort, but even that losing performance inspires more confidence than anything Kunimoto has done in the UFC to date. The pick is Ottow by second-round TKO.

Women’s Strawweights

J.J. Aldrich (4-2) vs. Chan-Mi Jeon (5-0): In the cage, UFC debutante Jeon embodies the toughness and aggression for which Koreans have always been known in the boxing ring. A come-forward fighter, she loves to punch her way into the clinch, where she forces a messy fight with elbows and knees. Her reckless approach continues on the ground, where she is often forced to fight her way out of submission attempts as she piles on punishment with her fists. Aldrich has the makings of a tactical out-fighter, which could very well be the antidote to Jeon’s wild style. In her UFC debut against Julianna Lima, however, Aldrich had a hard time keeping herself out of the clinch and seemed too hesitant to commit to her strikes at range. Inexperience is a hurdle for both of these fighters. It may be a substantially bigger problem for Aldrich, whose style demands discipline in the face of aggression. Jeon needs only to fight the way she usually does to win this fight, whereas Aldrich will have to show heretofore unseen levels of discipline and composure. I would like to see those things before I count on them, but Jeon’s level of competition must also be considered. She has fought no one of note and often struggles to control even the most un-athletic opponents. Expect this one to be messy as Aldrich adjusts to Jeon’s aggression, stays composed and gets a handle on the fight eventually. The pick is Aldrich by unanimous decision.

Lightweights

Thibault Gouti (11-3) vs. Dong Hyun Kim (14-8-3): Gouti and Kim have both been exciting fighters during their UFC runs, but neither has found consistent success. Gouti had more than a few impressive moments on the feet against French-Canadian grappler Olivier Aubin-Mercier, but his two other bouts in the promotion have been quick, one-sided defeats. On the other hand, South Korea’s Kim went to war in his first two UFC fights, showing off his power and chin before settling down to notch a workmanlike victory over Brendan O’Reilly in December. A black-belt judoka, Kim’s grappling has not always shown up in the cage, especially when he is held in bottom position, but his most recent performance saw him in prolonged periods of control on the floor. Gouti, on the other hand, has wanted nothing so much as a kickboxing match in all three of his UFC bouts. He is reasonably technical on the feet, but he is hittable. He shares this trait with Kim but lacks the Korean’s granite chin. Unremarkable though his record may be, Kim’s one win under the UFC banner counts for a lot when compared to Gouti’s conspicuous zero. Add to that the fact that Gouti was stunned badly in one UFC fight and succinctly knocked out in another, and this bout seems tailor-made for “Maestro’s” heavy hands. Things may turn sour if he fails to recapture his old aggression as he strives to become a more technical fighter, but I suspect that Gouti’s aggressive kickboxing will tap into Kim’s inner barbarian whether or not he comes into the fight planning to let it out. The pick is Kim by first-round TKO.

Connor Ruebusch is an analyst of striking and boxing technique for Sherdog.com, as well as BloodyElbow.com and BadLeftHook.com. He has written hundreds of articles examining fighting form and strategy, and he is not done yet. Every Wednesday he talks about the finer points of face-punching on his podcast Heavy Hands. Though he dabbles in fantasy MMA, he is not a regular gambler, nor is he an expert in the field. If you use these predictions as a betting guide, please do so in combination with your own best judgment and a healthy pinch of salt. It is your money.