Preview: UFC Fight Night ‘Dos Anjos vs. Ferguson’

Bantamweights

Erik Perez (16-6) vs. Felipe Arantes (18-7-1): Arantes is a frustrating fighter. He strikes well, preferring a high-volume approach with plenty of pop in his strikes. As a grappler, he does an excellent job of finding submissions from his back. The fact that he spends so much time in that position is the problem. Arantes is severely lacking in the wrestling department, and he puts very little effort into scrambling back to his feet once grounded. Instead, Arantes is happy to play guard and look for the finish from that position, a habit which has seen him give away rounds to basically any fighter that looks to take him down. Perez is not an exceptional wrestler, but when he has a tactic in mind, he remains downright committed to it. He will doubtless bring Arantes to the ground, likely by grinding him against the fence and dragging him down. On the feet, he will hand with Arantes. Perez is more hittable than his foe, but he is also making steady improvements at Alliance MMA, even making some hay with the unique footwork favored by bantamweight champion Dominick Cruz. Like Arantes, Perez is all about work rate and volume, but his meta-game is considerably stronger. The pick is Perez by unanimous decision.

Welterweights

Erick Montano (7-4) vs. Max Griffin (12-3): I have been pretty hard on Montano in the past, but he showed some promise in his recent encounter with “Lookin’ for a Fight” prospect Randy Brown. As usual, his technique was not altogether pretty and he did give in to Brown’s submission game in the end, but he fought a competitive, grimy fight, chipping away at Brown in the clinch, putting him on his back several times and scoring some nice punches from top position. If Montano brings one thing to the table, it is a willingness to fight, and that is something of note. It may not be enough against Griffin. “Pain” also dropped his last fight, but Montano will not be bringing to the table anything like the relentless wrestling of Colby Covington. When his back is not pinned to the ground, Griffin is a powerhouse striker with good timing. His skill set is in need of development -- at this point in his career it is doubtful whether those changes will be made -- but Griffin’s accuracy and power should grant him those precious, round-winning moments against a grinder like Montano. This one really could go either way, but the pick is Griffin by unanimous decision.

Bantamweights

Enrique Briones (16-5-1) vs. Douglas Silva de Andrade (23-1): Briones turned in a credible performance against top contender Cody Garbrandt in his last bout: The problem is that the fight took place over a year ago. An injury forced Briones to pull out of a bout scheduled for January, and he has not set foot in the Octagon since July 2015. Potential ring rust is the biggest disadvantage in Briones’ corner, as he seems otherwise well-suited to outwork his Brazilian opponent. Andrade is a powerhouse, with crushing kicks and punches, and that is his main strength. He showed off some nifty timing in his fight with Cody Gibson, but that was doubtless aided by the latter’s habit of rushing forward with his chin exposed and both arms wide. Briones will work the same sharp jab that brought Gibson success against Andrade -- until he stopped throwing it -- and he will force the power puncher to chase him around the ring. Provided Briones’ leg-kick defense is up to par, he should take the nod here. Briones by unanimous decision is the pick.

Middleweights

Sam Alvey (28-8) vs. Alex Nicholson (7-2): Throughout his two-year tenure with the UFC, Alvey has established himself as a fighter capable of two things: incredible knockouts and dull, tentative fights. Alvey is a counterpuncher, one of the purest examples of that style in the UFC, and he relies entirely on his opponents’ willingness to engage. When they do not or choose to pepper Alvey from a safe distance, he cannot make the necessary adjustments to win the fight. When they opt to step in with power shots, Alvey frequently knocks them out, usually with his crushing right hook. Nicholson could be an awkward customer for Alvey. His unorthodox striking is unpredictable, and he is both durable and dangerous. His reliance on lunging attacks, however, makes him a prime target for an Alvey counter. If Nicholson can survive the punch, he stands a good chance of making Alvey lose yet another ugly fight. More likely, however, he rushes in to find Alvey’s hook waiting for him and wakes up to a flashlight and a soothing voice. The pick is Alvey by second-round TKO.

Lightweights

Marco Polo Reyes (6-3) vs. Jason Novelli (11-2-1): Reyes’ record may not be particularly glamorous, but he certainly earned the attention of the MMA sphere with his last fight -- a thrilling, knockdown, drag-out brawl with Dong Hyun Kim. Reyes also recovered remarkably well from round to round despite an absolutely blistering pace. The win was not a spotless one, but Reyes’ performance belied his apparent inexperience, proving he can stand and trade with a tough and more seasoned fighter. Wait, are we talking about fist-fighters or well-done steaks? As for Novelli, his UFC debut was decidedly less promising. To be fair, David Teymur is an excellent kickboxer and a tough matchup for Novelli, but the Washingtonian’s awkward blend of kicking and grinding submission wrestling is tough to play without exceptional athleticism, and Novelli is not markedly more athletic than Reyes. Teymur may be smoother, but Reyes has considerable skill with his striking and a whole lot of power. Expect him to feint and counter Novelli before eventually finding the finish. The pick is Reyes by second-round TKO.

Featherweights

Enrique Barzola (11-3-1) vs. Chris Avila (5-3): Barzola may have picked up an official loss in his last outing, but the Peruvian fighter should be 2-0 in the UFC -- 14 out of 14 MMA media members sampled by MMADecisions.com agree. Barzola is a treat to watch, an intelligent out-fighter with an odd, eclectic style. He throws a crisp jab, executes quick, reactive takedowns and chips away with an awkward but not unwieldy array of kicks. On the ground, Barzola is a fine scrambler and a punishing presence on top. That he hails from a country with no notable MMA scene only makes his unique skill set more impressive. Avila needs at least a year or two yet before his game reaches Barzola’s level of sophistication. At the moment, he is a promising boxer with a long 1-2, a decent rear-naked choke and very little else. He is Nate Diaz if you took out all the experience and marvelous jiu-jitsu. In other words, as if his loss to Artem Lobov did not leave him salty enough, Avila still needs seasoning. The pick is Barzola by unanimous decision.

Bantamweights

Marco Beltran (8-3) vs. Joe Soto (16-5): “Short notice” may be the magic words for Soto. Fans will recall that Soto’s most impressive UFC performance to date came, improbably, in a short-notice title fight with then-bantamweight champion T.J. Dillashaw. Soto could not pull off the win, or even win any rounds, but he made one of the best fighters on the planet work hard for four rounds -- a far cry from his losses to men like Anthony Birchak and Michinori Tanaka, close though the latter was. Soto seems to belong to that class of journeymen who specialize in adapting on the fly but do not always know how to push the pace and steal a win from their opponents. Hence, another short-notice fight may be his best bet; and that is just what Soto gets in Beltran, who was originally scheduled to face Guido Cannetti at this event. Beltran has the reach to do what Chris Beal did to Soto in his last fight: keep him on the end of the jab and take advantage of his lack of speed and urgency to steal rounds. He does not, however, have Beal’s explosive athleticism, nor his willingness to throw volume. Most of what Beltran does comes in ones and twos, and his footwork is not clean enough to keep from being bullied into the fence, where his lack of takedown defense becomes a real problem. The fact that Beltran has enjoyed a full training camp should help him out, but Soto seems like the kind of fighter who excels even without one. For that reason, the pick is Soto by unanimous decision.

Connor Ruebusch is an analyst of striking and boxing technique for Sherdog.com, as well as BloodyElbow.com and BadLeftHook.com. He has written hundreds of articles examining fighting form and strategy, and he is not done yet. Every Wednesday he talks about the finer points of face-punching on his podcast Heavy Hands. Though he dabbles in fantasy MMA, he is not a regular gambler, nor is he an expert in the field. If you use these predictions as a betting guide, please do so in combination with your own best judgment and a healthy pinch of salt. It is your money.