Lightweights
Matt Frevola (6-1) vs. Lando Vannata (9-3-1): He remains an interesting prospect, but it has been a stunning fall for Jackson-Wink’s Vannata. He entered 2017 as one of the UFC’s top prospects, owing to an impressive debut showing in a loss to Tony Ferguson and a brutal knockout of John Makdessi. However, he has not won a fight since. Vannata eternally lives in the flow state, throwing out flashy strikes with little regard for defense, fundamentals or anything else, and that has come back to bite him as the UFC has tried to move him up the ladder. Whether it is staying patient and picking apart Vannata with fundamentals or just moving in and trying to stifle him with clinch work, the book is out on him. While his exciting style is going to buy him some extra rope, “Groovy Lando” needs to figure things out if he wants to be more than just a fun action gatekeeper. Here, he takes on Long Island’s Frevola, who showed out in his performance on Dana White’s Tuesday Night Contender Series, owing to a relentless pressure game and some solid grappling. That could cause Vannata some issues, but it also looks to have been a bit of an outlier in Frevola’s recent career. This should be a fun brawl for as long as it lasts. With that said, Frevola’s debut loss to Marco Polo Reyes showed he can be caught, and Vannata figures to be the type of guy who can catch him. The pick is Vannata via second-round knockout. ODDS: Vannata (-320), Frevola (+260)Advertisement
Featherweights
Shane Burgos (10-1) vs. Kurt Holobaugh (17-5): Two featherweight prospects look to rebound from disappointing losses in this one. New York’s Burgos once looked like a blue-chipper thanks to a dynamic and fluid pressure striking game, but after three standout performances to start his UFC career, he was on the losing end of a fun war with Calvin Kattar. Burgos looked to be hitting his stride in the second half of that bout, but Kattar just decided to turn on the pressure in the third round and wound up running over Burgos in the process. Burgos now seeks a W against Louisiana’s Holobaugh, who suffered through a disappointing return to the UFC in July. Holobaugh had a blink-and-you-miss-it first run in the UFC -- he came over from Strikeforce and was cut after one loss -- but succeeded on the regional scene thanks to an aggressive and well-rounded game. His return fight saw Raoni Barcelos more or less dominate him, particularly with wrestling, before delivering a late knockout. This is a close fight, particularly since Burgos probably will not look to mix things up and wrestle. However, I still favor the New Yorker to be the quicker and more aggressive fighter while overwhelming Holobaugh and winning rounds. The pick is Burgos via third-round knockout. ODDS: Burgos (-320), Holobaugh (+260)Bantamweights
Brian Kelleher (19-9) vs. Montel Jackson (6-1): Kelleher has had an up-and-down UFC career, basically owing to the Long Island, New York, native’s willingness to go along with whatever presents itself in a fight. Kelleher’s first two UFC bouts were a microcosm of things. He landed a submission win over Iuri Alcantara in sudden fashion, only to lose just as suddenly via tapout to Marlon Vera a month and a half later. A theoretical breakthrough win over Renan Barao in February continues to hold less and less value, but Kelleher is still a fun middle-tier bantamweight capable of impressing and disappointing in any one particular moment. He next takes on Milwaukee’s Jackson, who is quite raw -- even by the standards of recent UFC signees -- and only made his debut last year. Jackson is a long striker with a ton of potential, but his first Octagon appearance against Ricky Simon showed that he still has a way to go to hang at this level. Despite his successes thus far, Kelleher might be a bit more forgiving; he may not be as defensively porous as Simon, but he is a lesser wrestler. Still, I expect Kelleher to have enough grappling craft and general options to frustrate Jackson and get the win. The pick is Kelleher via decision in a fight that should be closer than their individual resumes suggest. ODDS: Jackson (-145), Kelleher (+125)Heavyweights
Adam Wieczorek (10-1) vs. Marcos Rogerio de Lima (15-5-1): During his UFC tenure, Brazil’s de Lima has been an archetypal power monster. His last bout against Ovince St. Preux was his UFC fight to make it past the first round, as “Pezao” throws heat and either scores a quick finish or gets finished himself shortly thereafter. After spending most of his UFC career at 205 pounds, de Lima returns to heavyweight to face Poland’s Wieczorek, who remains a difficult fighter to peg. He is nowhere near as physically impressive as Derrick Lewis, but Wieczorek kind of uses a similar game plan, surviving until he can outlast his opponent and score a finish when the opportunity presents itself. Somehow this resulted in Wieczorek executing the second omoplata finish in UFC history, as he tapped Arjan Singh Bhullar with the maneuver in April. There is a decent chance that de Lima smokes Wieczorek, but I expect the Pole to find a way to survive and net a late finish. The pick is Wieczorek by second-round knockout. ODDS: Wieczorek (-270), de Lima (+230)We are a participant in the Amazon Services LLC Associates Program, an affiliate advertising program designed to provide a means for us to earn fees by linking to Amazon.com and affiliated sites.
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