UFC Fight Night ‘Bader vs. St. Preux’ Preview

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Featherweights

Thiago Tavares (18-5-1, 8-5-1 UFC) vs. Robbie Peralta (18-4, 4-1 UFC)

The Matchup: This is a solid pairing of mid-tier featherweights, and the winner will have made a strong case for inclusion in the division’s top 15. Tavares, a mainstay of the UFC’s lightweight division with 14 Octagon appearances under his belt, is making his first cut to featherweight and hoping the drop will reinvigorate a career that peaked well outside the elite. He faces a tough matchup in “Problems” Peralta, a brick-fisted puncher riding a pair of victories, most recently over “The Ultimate Fighter: Brazil” winner Rony Mariano Bezerra.

It seems like Tavares has been hanging around the UFC forever, and he has: Chuck Liddell was the light heavyweight champion when he made his debut, though injuries and a positive steroid test have prevented him from maintaining a particularly active schedule over the last seven years.

His game revolves around takedowns executed with more enthusiasm and will than technical skill, but he remains a smooth, opportunistic grappler with a solid submission arsenal. Failing takedowns, he is also capable of grinding in the clinch.

While he has some offensive striking skills, throwing a crisp right hand and decent kicks, working at range is not his strong point, and he has serious defensive liabilities such as backing up with his chin in the air and not moving his head in exchanges.

Peralta is a gifted bomber. While his punches loop and look a bit awkward, they are mechanically sound and generate tremendous power. He complements those bursts of offense with hard, cracking low kicks at long range. He is also a surprisingly strong and proficient clinch grappler, and his defensive wrestling has generally proven to be serviceable. Essentially, Peralta is a throwback sprawl-and-brawler who lives and dies by the sword. With his power, athleticism and above-average offensive output, that is a workable formula.

Betting Odds: Tavares (-180), (Peralta +155)

The Pick: The oddsmakers have Tavares as the favorite, and that seems off to me. One bout against a shot Sam Stout aside, Tavares has never been capable of outstriking his opponents, and his offensive wrestling is not technical enough to overcome Peralta’s rock-solid takedown defense with any consistency. If this does become a striking match, Peralta throws real heat with a solid work rate, and Tavares’ defensive liabilities become the key factor. While Peralta could take a decision on output, it seems more likely that he catches the hittable Tavares and puts him away. Peralta wins by knockout in round two.

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