Preview: UFC Fight Night ‘Almeida vs. Garbrandt’

Lightweights

Joshua Burkman (28-12) vs Paul Felder (11-2)

THE MATCHUP: Burkman is a counter striker with some considerable craft and a daunting set of skills. The consistency with which he uses them is another matter. Burkman seems to have trouble finding the right gameplan and sticking to it. When he hurt Dong Hyun Kim on the feet, he inexplicably tried to drag the grappling ace to the ground. When Patrick Cote did the same after repeatedly being stunned in striking exchanges, Burkman consented to the wrestling match that ended up giving Cote the time he needed to compose himself and turn the fight in his favor. The kick-heavy game he played against K.J. Noons was clever, but Noons has rarely looked as tentative as he did in that fight.

Burkman will need all of his craft to best Felder. “The Irish Dragon” is a massive welterweight -- despite dropping down to lightweight Burkman will be the shorter fighter, and likely the less powerful man in the clinch. Felder’s technical game shows a great deal of promise as well, though inexperience stands in the way of his potential. For example, Felder has great head movement, but tends to stand in place and slip rather than incorporating footwork into his defense. He pressures well, but waits for the counter while doing so, rather than drawing out his openings.

Burkman is a willing wrestler, though not a particularly technical one. His ability to grab submissions in transition is a hefty advantage, though. Burkman’s guillotine is especially dangerous: he has finished at least four men with this technique, including the nigh unchokeable Jon Fitch. Felder’s specialty is counter-wrestling, however. He is not only very difficult to take down, but counters the attempts with deadly intent. Complementing his sprawls with knees and uppercuts, Felder will often end up on top of the opponent if he doesn’t put them away outright. His aim on the ground is usually to escape to his feet, though he will do damage from top control if given the chance.

THE ODDS: Felder (-305), Burkman (+250)

THE PICK: This is precisely the kind of matchup Felder should be getting at this point in his career. At 32 years old, he doesn’t have much time left to develop, but his mere five years of experience preclude him from winning matchups against the likes of Edson Barboza just yet. Burkman is a dangerous veteran whose athletic gifts are just starting to slip, and who will most likely be forced to strike with Felder. Like Daron Cruickshank before him, expect Burkman to give Felder some trouble before ultimately succumbing to the larger, younger athlete. The pick is Felder by unanimous decision.

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