Preview: UFC on Fox 27 ‘Jacare vs. Brunson 2’

Lightweight

Bobby Green (23-8-1) vs. Erik Koch (15-5)

ODDS: Green (-170), Koch (+150)

ANALYSIS: Green helped author one of 2017’s wildest and most exciting bouts in his bloody brawl with Lando Vannata in his last outing, and although he completely sacrificed his defense and took a boatload of trauma, it was spiriting to see; in his three prior bouts, he had looked positively languid. Meanwhile, in the last six years and change, Koch is just 2-4 and is coming off of a lopsided loss to an aged Clay Guida in June. On the feet, Green is far more active, landing 4.70 significant strikes per minute to Koch’s 2.11, and when he chooses to use them, he has a brilliant jab and clever boxing. However, Koch is a quick and powerful southpaw kickboxer and sudden lapses in concentration are hallmarks of Green’s game, so danger is present for him there. Green is not going to work the kind of incessant chain wrestling and top game that Guida did, but “King” actually is a sharp wrestler with a nifty single-leg takedown and could mitigate the risks of standing up with Koch if he was able to get takedowns. Koch is average at best off his back and does not protect himself well. It is always hard to get a handle on how Green is going to approach any given fight and whether or not his in-cage decision making will undermine him. However, if the former King of the Cage champion shows the renewed aggression of the Vannata fight against Koch, he should be able to dictate the fight, his jab and hand speed allowing him to pile up shots. Green by decision is the pick.

Featherweight

Mirsad Bektic (11-1) vs. Godofredo Castro (13-5)

ODDS: Bektic (-600), Castro (+450)

ANALYSIS: Bektic has been defined by his dramatic knockout loss to Darren Elkins at UFC 209 in March. That is a shame. While Elkins’ comeback gimmick is quaint and neat, the 26-year-old Bektic is an outstanding prospect who really brings everything to the table. After all, consider the quality of fighter Elkins is and how badly Bektic was crushing him prior to the knockout. The American Top Team product is the biggest favorite on this card and with good reason, as “Pepey” is up against a host of stylistic disadvantages here. Bektic is athletically superior, a much better boxer and an infinitely better wrestler. If Bektic simply works his jab and pressures Castro, he can box him up despite giving up three inches of reach. However, Castro’s greatest asset is his sudden, unpredictable offense, so Bektic is likely going to avoid playing with fire against a fighter whose arsenal consists largely of leaping knees, spinning kicks and flying triangles. Further insulating Bektic is the fact that he only absorbs 1.17 significant strikes per minute, the second-best rate in UFC featherweight history. Castro’s 35 percent takedown defense is miserable and Bektic should exploit it early and often. Once on the floor, “Pepey” is going to eat a steady diet of leather from the constantly pressuring, passing and punching Bektic. If he hears the final bell, the Brazilian will be on the wrong end of some wide scorecards, but look for Bektic to get to hammering early and eventually pound his way to stoppage.

Flyweight

Mara Romero Borella (12-4) vs. Katlyn Chookagian (9-1)

ODDS: Chookagian (-150), Romero Borella 
(+130)

ANALYSIS: Since hooking up with American Top Team, Italy’s Borella has been increasingly impressive, and she completely dummied Kalindra Faria in her UFC debut in October, choking her out in less than three minutes. Chookagian, however, will likely prove a far more difficult test here, as she returns to her natural weight class. Chookagian is a strong fundamental kickboxer but also has fantastic grappling chops honed under John Danaher, Renzo Gracie and Ricardo Almeida. The weakest aspect of her game is defensive wrestling, but she will be aided by not having to face physical bantamweights like Liz Carmouche. “Blonde Fighter” operates best at kicking range, working a variety of leg attacks and also using a hard jab to help maintain that distance. Borella’s standup has certainly gotten sharper recently, but unless she has made massive strides since the Milana Dudieva fight in July, Chookagian should certainly enjoy a striking edge; and she has the footwork to deal with Borella, who figures to unload her right hand and try to charge into the clinch. Borella appears to be the real deal and more time at ATT may rouse further improvement, but Chookagian may quickly emerge as a top-10 flyweight now that she is back in her rightful weight class. She may need to escape from under Borella on occasion, but look for Chookagian to stick and move from distance, feed the Italian a steady diet of kicks and overhands and win a competitive decision.

Strawweight

Juliana Lima (9-4) vs. Randa Markos (7-5)

ODDS: Markos (-165), Lima (+145)

ANALYSIS: It is fitting in a weird way that Markos has alternated losses and wins over her UFC tenure, as it mirrors her own mercurial, inconsistent fight style. She has made strides in her own offensive boxing but remains incredibly hittable. She is at her best when she can take dominant positions and dish out heavy ground-and-pound to open up submission opportunities. However, she does not do a great job of controlling her opponents, so she is prone to up-down scramble-fests and exchanging positions. Luckily for her, she is facing a fighter in Lima that offers extremely low output and is not liable to take advantage of the fact that Markos fights in bursts. “Ju Thai” lands just 2.08 significant strikes per minute; on the feet, she idly lobs low kicks from distance, and on the floor, she is liable to simply sit in an opponent’s guard and chip away. While it would be wise for Lima to fill the gaps in activity with a steady diet of leg kicks, we have seen enough of her style to know it is just not likely to happen. Look for Markos to box her way inside, muscle the Brazilian against the fence and alternate punches and takedown attempts. She may not control Lima effortlessly, but Markos should feed her enough shots standing and on the ground to win a tidy decision.

Flyweight

Ji Yeon Kim (6-1-2) vs. Justine Kish (6-1)

ODDS: Kish (-290), Kim (+245)

ANALYSIS: A former strawweight in Kish is moving up to fight a former bantamweight in Kim, and it shows, as Kish gives up eight inches of reach to her South Korean counterpart. However, Kim does not enjoy the distance striking edge in this matchup and prefers to close the distance, get the body lock and work for takedowns. In her UFC debut in June, Kim’s clinch game was soundly shut down by Lucie Pudilova, who also busted her up inside in close quarters. Kish is a smooth operator in the clinch and capable of getting takedowns of her own, but she usually prefers to get collar ties and land punches, elbows and knees. In spite of the size difference, Kish’s striking variety, volume and forward pressure should allow her to make Kim go backwards, where she is not effective at all. In her loss slash accidental defecation against Felice Herrig, the Russian proved she could survive a sticky spot on the ground, including powering out of a tight rear-naked choke in the third round. Kim is going to try to follow the same blueprint Herrig use, so Kish needs to take care to not expose her back as frequently as she did against the Jeff Curran protégé. With that said, her pressure and striking advantage should mean more of this bout will take place standing, which favors Kish. The pick is a decision win for Kish, who takes a step toward moving past being synonymous with pooping herself in the cage.

Lightweight

Vinc Pichel (10-1) vs. Joaquim Silva (10-0)

ODDS: Pichel (-110), Silva (-110)

ANALYSIS: It is difficult to know what Pichel is capable of. He has fought just once in almost four years due to copious injuries. He is well-rounded and solid everywhere but does not wow you in any capacity. Meanwhile, Silva has windmilled and kicked his way to a 3-0 mark in the UFC, despite combining wild striking with mediocre defensive wrestling. Ironically given his “Netto BJJ” moniker, Silva is not an outstanding submission grappler, but he is talented at initiating scrambles and finding ways to stand up when grounded. He will have to do so against Pichel, who will have the wrestling edge here and will likely press the issue, as “From Hell” averages 6.69 takedowns per 15 minutes. However, even if it stays standing, Pichel is a formidable boxer and has some nifty punches, including the quick shovel hook-uppercut hybrid with which he decked Damien Brown in his return bout in June. Pichel’s ability to mix up his offensive tactics and the determination of his wrestling should allow him to put the Brazilian on the floor more often than not, even if he has to rinse and repeat a couple times a round and perhaps eat some big hooks and low kicks from his adversary. Pichel by unanimous decision is the pick.

Last Fights » Early Prelims