Preview: UFC 215 ‘Nunes vs. Shevchenko 2’

Flyweights

Henry Cejudo (10-2) vs. Wilson Reis (22-7): This is the havoc that Demetrious Johnson creates: two top-10 fighters -- and former “Mighty Mouse” victims -- squaring off to maintain flyweight relevance, with both men acutely aware of how professionally damaging a loss could be. Unfortunately for Reis, this a particularly rough style pairing. Above and beyond his Olympic gold medal, Cejudo’s wrestling is rugged and determined in the cage; and what he lacks in crisp striking technique he atones for with constant barrages of wild punches and kicks to close the distance and set up clinch opportunities. For instance, Cejudo had a surprising amount of striking success against the still-outstanding Joseph Benavidez in December while frantically rushing him as often as possible. Reis is not a poor striker, but he is a basic boxer-grappler whose best successes standing come when he can introduce his wrestling as a threat and then sneak in powerful counters in around feints and shot attempts. He is unlikely to take down Cejudo -- no one in MMA has done so -- and the Olympian lands 3.87 significant strikes per minute to Reis’ 2.01. Reis will likely get peppered with lunging punches and kicks while constantly trying to avoid his counterpart’s relentless charges. Cejudo breaks his two-fight skid and wins a unanimous decision.

Women's Bantamweights

Sara McMann (11-3) vs. Ketlen Vieira (8-0): McMann won her Olympic silver medal 13 years ago; it has nearly been four years since she was destroyed by Ronda Rousey in her UFC title challenge; and she turns 37 later this month. Yet McMann seems to finally have hit her stride as a pro over the last three bouts, implementing her world-class wrestling on a consistent basis while attacking with more submissions. That development is made all the more stylistically fitting by her joining up with Team Alpha Male for this camp. Vieira is no slouch; she is a legitimate 8-0 prospect for a reason. However, her greatest advantage against McMann is pure punching power, and her striking game is still incredibly basic, consisting largely of one or two explosive punches to segue into a clinch. Vieira is at her best when she can muscle foes against the fence, drag them down and beat on them. Not only does McMann’s skill set undermine Vieira’s strengths, but the Amazon native has faded late in each of her UFC bouts, dropping the third round to both Kelly Faszholz and Ashlee Evans-Smith after controlling them early. Expect things to keep clicking for McMann and her newly efficient, aggressive grappling here, as she wins a tidy unanimous decision for her fourth Octagon victory in a row.

Women's Bantamweights

Ashlee Evans-Smith (5-2) vs. Sarah Moras (4-2): Speaking of stylistically preferable matchups, Evans-Smith is the beneficiary of one against Moras. Despite having almost a dozen amateur bouts, Evans-Smith is still learning on the job during her UFC tenure, improving and tightening her entire MMA game from fight to fight. However, Ketlen Vieira took the fight to Evans-Smith early in April, putting her on the back foot and driving her into the fence consistently over the first 10 minutes. Evans-Smith did not get out of first gear until about 12 minutes into the fight. Moras is a technical, crafty jiu-jitsu player and remarkably tough. However, she has not fought in over two years due to repeated hand injuries, and her last fight was a complete shellacking courtesy of Jessica Andrade -- now a strawweight -- who smashed her face bloody for 15 straight minutes. Evans-Smith is at her best when she takes dominant positions on the ground and then puts her powerful and frankly vicious ground-and-pound to use. If she gets Moras down and starts landing those gruesome elbows, “Cheesecake” might be mincemeat instead. However, being that Moras’ best and perhaps only chance to threaten Evans-Smith is by sweeping or submitting an overaggressive “Rebel Girl” on the ground, perhaps the Californian avoids the mat entirely. If that is the case, she is likely to pelt an underconditioned Moras for 15 minutes, perhaps inciting her opponent to start flopping and butt scooting out of desperation, just as she did for most of the Andrade bout. Evans-Smith takes it by dominant decision or elbow-oriented stoppage.

Featherweights

Rick Glenn (19-4) vs. Gavin Tucker (10-0): Glenn and Tucker are both varied, high-volume strikers for whom a dynamic, active offense is the best defense. However, in terms of actual defense, Tucker is far less hittable standing and is quick to avoid danger on the ground, sporting both quality takedown defense and clever scrambles to escape to his feet. Worse, despite his penchant for always marching forward and uncorking rangy punching combos and kicks, Glenn’s strategic approach suffers beyond the general notions of pressure and volume. He walks into clean strikes, especially kicks; and Tucker throws a ton of them to the legs, body and head. In nearly all his fights, Glenn begins telegraphing his own kicks to the point that his opponent inevitably catches one or several of them and tackles him to the mat. He often goes for poorly timed takedowns late in fights when he is already tired, allowing opponents to pound on him while he pushes for the technique. Despite his six-inch height and four-inch reach advantages, the Rofusport product seems like ideal fodder for the speedier Tucker. Glenn is a hard nut to crack -- watch his short-notice UFC debut against Evan Dunham at lightweight and look at the beating he took -- but Tucker should get to his man repeatedly with a head-to-toe punching and kicking attack. Glenn will not be completely stymied and frozen by Tucker's constant advances as Sam Sicilia was, but that is because Glenn will continue marching forward, throwing back and in turn giving the “Guv’nor” more chances to pile up points to a unanimous verdict.

Lightweights

Mitch Clarke (11-4) vs. Alex White (11-3): A lack of recent data and competitive clarity makes Clarke-White one of the closest bouts on the card, at least on paper. White, 28, began his amateur career over eight years ago and was already 9-0 as a pro when he made it to the UFC; however, he was still fairly green. The Missouri native, despite going 2-3 in the Octagon, has shown considerable technical development in that span, and now that the six-footer is at 155 pounds, he should be physically healthier, as well. White’s improved wrestling and kick-heavy offense should play well standing against Clarke, who holds a surprising two-inch reach advantage over White. Unfortunately for Clarke, his standup offense is in its best iteration an intermittent stream of leg kicks. Clarke is a solid wrestler and a very smooth, sudden submission grappler, as shown off in the biggest win of his career: a brabo choke submission upset of Al Iaquinta in May 2014. However, Clarke has fought just once in nearly two and a half years -- a grisly 25-second embarrassment against Ireland’s Joseph Duffy 14 months ago -- and has battled a spate of injuries, including nerve damage in his arm after he had an acupuncture needle break off inside his muscle tissue. The best chance of a finish here is through Clarke’s quick and crafty grappling, but the Saskatchewan native has not finished a takedown in the UFC in over five years. Though Clarke could wind up with a cool $50,000 bonus for another nifty submission in the blink of an eye, the inactivity and injuries put him in a potentially compromising position against the southpaw “Spartan,” who will match and best Clarke in an active kicking game to earn the win on points.

Heavyweights

Arjan Bhullar (6-0) vs. Luis Henrique Barbosa de Oliveira (10-3): The heavyweight division always needs help, and Bhullar checks a lot of boxes as a prospect. He is undefeated, an Olympic freestyle wrestler and Commonwealth Games gold medalist and a Canadian Sikh fighting out of British Columbia, meaning he is not just fodder for an always-eager Canadian market. As a second-generation Indian immigrant, he is also one of the sport’s most realistic hopes at having a noteworthy, elite fighter that could inspire and help foster an embryonic Indian MMA scene. In a perfect bit of dovetailing, Bhullar will make his walk to the cage alongside World Wrestling Entertainment champion Jinder Mahal, whose own Indian-Canadian heritage has been instrumental in his rise to prominence a pro wrestler. Bhullar’s complexion for the connection spills over into the matchmaking itself. Oliveira is an average wrestler with poor cardio whose game is built on wild punches into the clinch and dragging foes to the mat with strength over technique. In his March bout with Marcin Tybura, “KLB” gassed himself so thoroughly by pushing for poor clinch takedowns that he wound up literally face planting himself while trying to drag the Pole to the mat, leading to a Tybura mount and TKO loss. Bhullar’s striking has yet to blossom, but he has solid defense and has a great sense of how to land sneaky, sharp punches and knees while moving in and out of clinch range. He is not yet a dominant ground-and-pounder, but given Oliveira’s shoddy gas tank, a simple and steady attack from the clinch and top position could earn Bhullar a stoppage in the mid-to-latter portion of the fight.

Lightweights

Kajan Johnson (21-12-1) vs. Adriano Martins (28-8): Favorable style matchups are a major part of this undercard, so it is only fitting that it opens up with one. Johnson has been a pro fighter for over 15 years, a span in which he has endured some nasty knockouts and associated injuries, from repeated orbital bone fractures that nearly retired him to Chad Laprise breaking his jaw in three places on “The Ultimate Fighter.” Despite all that experience, Johnson still fights in a confusing and unfocused manner. He comes forward throwing flashy kicks with both feet, yet is at his best as a circling counterpuncher. He has surprisingly good takedowns from the clinch but so often winds up playing bottom, eating punishment while he goes for leg locks or sweeps. When he is punching, it is startling how slow he brings his guard back to his face. Martins is not without his flaws. He can be incredibly frustrating to watch, staring at his opponent and feinting for absurd periods of time before launching one or two potent strikes; he always seems to slip up as he approaches potential top-15 status. However, Martins is simply better everywhere than Johnson, and while he typically stays true to his southpaw stance, his real money punch -- the device that smashed Islam Makhachev and Juan Manuel Puig -- is his wide-casting right hand, which while not necessarily economic in its motion is deceptive and destructive. If Johnson eats that lead hand or a powerful winging left, he is likely going to sleep. If he keeps the lights on after the punches land, he is likely seconds away from being stormed on and submitted by Martins, who for all his stalking and staring is a true shark when there is blood in the water. Either way, it happens in the first five minutes.