Preview: UFC 225 ‘Whittaker vs. Romero 2’

Heavyweights:
Andrei Arlovski (27-15) vs. Tai Tuivasa (7-0)
Odds: Tuivasa (-250), Arlovski (+210)

This is the kind of matchup I like for Arlovski at this point: testing up-and-comers. He isn’t elite anymore -- his lack of durability precludes him from reaching the top five -- but he is still skilled and athletic enough to give most guys in the moribund heavyweight division problems. The Belarusian has been training at ATT for his last few fights, and he seems -- against all odds -- to have reinvigorated his career once again. Following five straight losses to mostly elite competitors, Arlovski has taken consecutive decisions over Junior Albini and Stefan Struve. The pair are not top-flight heavyweights, but they each present legitimate threats.

The former champion dictated the exchanges with Albini. As the Brazilian marched slowly forward, Arlovski stepped forward to meet him on his terms when he wanted to, throwing body-head combinations. He would then either quickly exit or clinch up, usually giving Albini the chance to throw only one counter. Arlovski largely boxed Albini up and kicked his legs to take a clear decision. Against Struve, “Pitbull” again had success with punching combinations and leg kicks, but it was his reemergent wrestling that won him that fight. In short, the former sambo practitioner has a wealth of experience and a deep toolkit, and his physical tools haven’t yet fallen off a cliff.

Tuivasa, meanwhile, possesses youthful exuberance and crushing power, but it’s not clear how much else. The Aussie is lauded on broadcasts for his pro boxing chops, but his 5-2 record doesn’t stack up as an advantage against Arlovski. “Bam Bam” is explosive and can cover space shockingly quickly with a left hook, right cross combination. He likes to pot-shot from distance with a body kick followed by a right hand, and his leg kicks can be devastating. Where the former rugby player is especially frightening is when he has his man backed up to the cage, where he unleashes ferocious elbows. But Tuivasa has never been out of the first round. In his final pre-UFC fight, he forced James McSweeney to quit after the first, but Tuivasa was gassed. That was due in large part to a significant amount of grappling and wrestling.

As you can probably guess from the analysis, I think this line is off. To be sure, Tuivasa is fearsome and Arlovski is on the fragile side. But I’m trusting in his experience, craft, and deeper and broader bag of tricks. We saw a similar dynamic in Arlovski’s bout with Albini, who was coming off an impressive stoppage of Timothy Johnson. Tuivasa’s victims have been low-level heavyweights, and I’m going to need to see him take out a higher class of fighter before I pick him against one like Arlovski. The former heavyweight champion runs his win streak to three with a unanimous decision.

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