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Dos Anjos vs. Dunham

Rafael dos Anjos has won seven of his last nine bouts. | Dave Mandel



Lightweights


Rafael Dos Anjos (18-6, 7-4 UFC) vs. Evan Dunham (14-3, 7-3 UFC)

The Matchup: The fact that both dos Anjos and Dunham usually reside just outside of the lightweight top 10 is a testament to the depth of the division.

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Dos Anjos carries a three-fight winning streak into the matchup, having bested Kamal Shalorus, Anthony Njokuani and Mark Bocek during an undefeated 2012 campaign. Dunham, meanwhile, has won three of his last four, losing only to 155-pound title hopeful T.J. Grant at UFC 152. A win for either fighter could secure a bout against a highly ranked contender down the road.

A Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt, Dos Anjos owns eight submission victories during his career, but it is his sneaky power that could pave his way to victory here. The Brazilian’s power surfaced in the form of a counter right hook knockout of George Sotiropolous at UFC 132. In recent bouts, he dropped Shalorus with a head kick at UFC on Fuel TV 3 and rocked Njokuani with a left cross at UFC on Fuel TV 4. While he does not land in great volume on the feet, Dos Anjos solid boxing and leg kicks usually allow him to close the distance on his opponents.

Dunham is a also BJJ black belt, but he will likely try to use his defensive wrestling to keep the action standing against a grappler as dangerous as Dos Anjos. The Xtreme Couture Mixed Martial Arts product moves fluidly on the feet, consistently finding the range on his jab and left cross. Dunham’s standup is more versatile than that which Dos Anjos wields, as he mixes in kicks and knees well with his punches.

If Dos Anjos is able to close the distance, he must be aware of Dunham’s ability to generate offense in the clinch. Dos Anjos’ wrestling is underrated, but he relies on an explosive shot more than anything to get foes to the canvas. Dunham has good conditioning and should not fade in the later rounds, and he will land a higher volume of strikes against dos Anjos as the fight progresses.

The Pick: Dunham and dos Anjos will cancel out each other on the ground, making this a fight that is decided in standup exchanges. Dunham has the higher output and avoids the knockout shot to win a decision.

Next Fight » Rafael Natal vs. Joao Zeferino
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