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Women's Strawweights
Joanna Jedrzejczyk (14-2) vs. Tecia Torres (10-2)
Odds: Jedrzejczyk (-300), Torres (+250)

What a difference a year makes.

Last summer, Jedrzejczyk was expected to clean out the UFC's strawweight division and move up to flyweight, but she's instead seeking her first win in over 14 months. In late 2014, Jedrzejczyk backdoored her way into becoming inaugural strawweight champ Carla Esparza's first title challenger; most people thought she lost her bout against Claudia Gadelha, and given the trouble that Jedrzejczyk had with Gadelha's wrestling, most figured Esparza would be able to grind out a win. But once the title fight took place, Jedrzejczyk was able to keep things standing, lay a beating on Esparza and claim the strawweight crown.

After a surgical destruction of Jessica Penne in her first title defense, Jedrzejczyk became a decision machine, but was dominant; outside of Gadelha controlling Jedrzejczyk for two rounds before tiring badly, opponents were lucky if they even had moments of success against the champ. Heading into UFC 217 last November, Jerdrzejczyk was expected to handle Rose Namajunas and move up to flyweight, but Namajunas bothered Jedrzejczyk with her reach, and in a shade over three minutes, Jedrzejczyk was tapping out to strikes and surrendering her strawweight throne. Surprisingly, Jedrzejczyk pursued a rematch rather than starting over in a new weight class, putting on an underrated classic at UFC 223 that saw Namajunas narrowly retain her title. Despite her difficult weight cut, it looks like Jedrzejczyk will continue to chase a return to strawweight glory, and the comeback trail starts here against Torres.

Torres was considered a darkhorse contender to win the UFC's inaugural strawweight title tournament; yes, she was only four fights into her pro MMA career, but "The Tiny Tornado" scored wins over Namajunas, Paige VanZant and Felice Herrig in three of those bouts. But things never came together for Torres on Season 20 of “The Ultimate Fighter;” she suffered an upset loss to Randa Markos, lost again to Esparza upon re-entering the bracket and didn't make much of an impression with her personality. So Torres became somewhat of an afterthought, beating lower-tier opponents with a much more conservative volume boxing and wrestling style than she had shown in the past.

Torres eventually worked her way into some prominent positions, like a narrow co-main event loss to Namajunas in 2016, but she has yet to get that breakthrough win. Torres' last bout, a February loss to Jessica Andrade, was a bit disheartening. Finally facing someone with a similarly short frame, Torres showed flashes of an excellent movement-heavy striking game, but found herself physically overpowered in many of the exchanges. But Torres is still a top contender, and this spot against Jedrzejczyk is a huge opportunity for a bounce-back win.

Torres looked to be in her best form against Andrade, but I also don't see a path to victory for her here. Torres has the ceiling of a title contender, but her small frame raises some concerns in specific matchups, and this is one of those fights. When Jedrzejczyk fought Andrade, she showed her ability to brutally pick apart a shorter opponent, and while Torres doesn't fight with Andrade's mindless pressure, the former champion should still be able to dictate the range on the feet. And even if she can't, I'm not sure closing the distance would even help Torres, as Jedrzejczyk's muay Thai background gives her a bunch of brutal options inside the clinch. Torres' best hope is probably Jedrzejczyk having a brutal weight cut, which was reportedly a cause of her looking so flat in her title defense against Namajunas, but even then, Torres's lack of finishing ability means she wouldn't be able to put away Jedrzejczyk like Namajunas did. This was the right fight to make for both fighters, but it still looks like a clear Jedrzejczyk decision victory.

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