Preview: UFC on ESPN 63 ‘Covington vs. Buckley’

Flyweights

#9 FLW | Manel Kape (19-7, 4-3 UFC) vs. #12 FLW | Bruno Silva (14-5-2, 4-2 UFC)

ODDS: Kape (-345), Silva (+275)

Kape’s run towards title contention has certainly taken a disappointing detour. He came to the UFC with a decent amount of hype, signing with the promotion after a breakout 2019 campaign in Japan that included a knockout of Kai Asakura. However, it quickly became apparent that “Starboy” would have to adjust his approach upon coming stateside. Japanese mixed martial arts tends to be more patient, allowing Kape to pick his spots to explode on opponents with his elite-level athleticism, but Alexandre Pantoja and Matheus Nicolau were each able and willing to fill time and space and outpace him for decision victories. Kape has not entirely adopted a more aggressive style, but he has picked things up enough to pay dividends. He scored quick knockouts of Ode Osbourne and Zhalgas Zhumagulov before settling into more consistent victories against David Dvorak and Felipe dos Santos. Then came his fight against Muhammad Mokaev in July. The leadup to the fight was heated, including an incident in the fighter hotel that was one of apparently many issues that led to Mokaev no longer being with the UFC, but once the time came to lock horns, neither man did much of anything. Kape’s knockout power and Mokaev’s dogged wrestling game combined to intimidate the two men into inactivity. Mokaev got the victory in a fight where nobody came out an actual winner, so Kape looks to rebuild in what should be a much more entertaining affair against Silva.

This is a well-deserved opportunity for Silva, as “Bulldog” has rebounded from a rough start to his UFC career in impressive fashion. An undersized flyweight, the Brazilian quickly ran into his ceiling against three straight opponents who were able to neutralize him through size and physicality. Given a step back in competition against a combination of worse fighters or more patient opponents like Tyson Nam, Silva has impressed as a problem-solving scrapper with finishing ability on the feet and the mat. Silva’s last bout, a win over Cody Durden in July, did a solid job of showing off the positives and negatives to his game as it currently exists. Silva was frozen out of most of the fight through the Georgia native’s size and wrestling ability, but Durden slipped up once and gave the Brazilian the opening to turn the fight around and score a brutal knockout. Unfortunately, this pairing appears to line up as another reminder of Silva’s ceiling. He should be willing to engage with Kape, but even with the inefficiencies in his style, he lands hard enough that he should be able to outweigh whatever work Silva otherwise accomplishes, particularly since the Brazilian seems unlikely to finish the historically durable former Rizin Fighting Federation champion. The pick is Kape via decision.

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Covington vs. Buckley
Quarantillo vs. Swanson
Kape vs. Silva
Petrino vs. Jacoby
Marcos vs. Yanez
Stirling vs. Tokkos
The Prelims