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Welterweights

NR | Santiago Ponzinibbio (27-3, 9-2 UFC) vs. NR | Jingliang Li (17-6, 9-4 UFC)

ODDS: Ponzinibbio (-275), Li (+235)

When Ponzinibbio took apart Neil Magny back in November 2018, it should have been a breakthrough moment for “Gente Boa.” The Argentinian had taken the long road to relevance. Injuries took him out of “The Ultimate Fighter Brazil” Season 2 final, and nobody paid him much notice after a rough start to his career inside the Octagon. Following a 2015 loss to Lorenz Larkin, Ponzinibbio’s pressure boxing game clicked and led him to a seven-fight winning streak that crested with that victory over Magny. Even beyond the stakes of the win—Magny is a well-regarded vet that many men before Ponzinibbio had used as a launching pad to bigger things—it was also the main event of the UFC’s first event in Argentina, meaning that the card was essentially built around Ponzinibbio returning home and affirming himself as the face of mixed martial arts in the entire country. However, what once looked to be a springboard now instead serves as a reminder of what Ponzinibbio is capable of, as injuries have kept him out of the cage since. Just when it looked like Ponzinbbio would return at the end of 2019 for a bout against Robbie Lawler, a severe staph infection kept him out of action for another year. Ponzinibbio is now set to finally build on whatever momentum is left from that Magny win, though he gets a tough matchup for his return against Li.

Li has also been the face of mixed martial arts in his country, as he was the lone relevant UFC fighter from China until this most recent wave of talent came into the promotion. The UFC first attempted to break into China circa 2014 and wound up with little to show for its efforts, save for Li, and even then, “The Leech” had to greatly change his approach. Fittingly for his nickname, Li climbed up the ranks as a clingy wrestler, but after that proved difficult to do in a narrow win over David Michaud, he pivoted to a striking game that has proven surprisingly effective—after the first round, at least. Even in Li’s wins, there has been a consistent pattern of him starting out cold and often getting clocked by punches that would knock out less-durable men. Li eventually settles into a groove and takes over the latter stages of his fights. A career-best performance over Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos in 2019 gave some hope that Li had found a new level to his approach, but an ugly loss to Magny in March proved to be another instance where he could not get over the hump to true contention. Even if Li settles in as an inconsistent action fighter, he will still have an important place in the UFC’s history as the first Chinese fighter of any real note.

While Ponzinibbio has certainly put together the much stronger resume of these two, this is still a sneakily difficult matchup that should result in some violence along the way. Ponzinibbio’s success typically hinges around his ability to move forward and apply pressure. While the Argentinian has shown an ability to fight at range, as he did in his 2017 fight against Mike Perry, he was much less potent. It will be interesting to see how Ponzinibbio approaches this fight from the jump, particularly given his long layoff. Li’s slow starts give Ponzinibbio an opening to get out of the gate first and apply some pressure, but he may need to shake off the rust himself, which in turn gives Li more of an opportunity to find his own rhythm early in the bout. Even if Ponzinibbio starts quickly, Li’s durability should take this fight to the scorecards, and the latter rounds become interesting. Li is a sharp and powerful counterpuncher once he starts feeling himself, and that power could get Ponzinibbio to retreat a bit. It is not all that dissimilar a dynamic from the main event, and it is difficult not to take the fighter who should get off to the better start and bank a round or two before the fight turns. The pick is Ponzinibbio via decision.

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