Preview: UFC Fight Night ‘Cerrone vs. Oliveira’

Bantamweights

Cody Garbrandt (7-0) vs Augusto Mendes (5-0)

THE MATCHUP: Now that natural-born brawler John Lineker has pulled out with dengue fever, Team Alpha Male’s Garbrandt gets a much gentler matchup in the form of Mendes, a prospect with experience more similar to his own. Mendes has had his black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu for over 10 years now, and his name inspires fear and respect on the submission grappling circuit, where “Tanquinho” has earned numerous world and national titles in gi and no-gi competition.

It should come as no surprise that Mendes’ strength as a mixed martial artist is his jiu-jitsu. Given that three of Mendes’ pro finishes have occurred in guard position, his game may need a little strategic adjusting as he goes forward, but the fact remains that his grappling ability is almost unrivaled in the bantamweight division. Mendes is nowhere near as polished on the feet, as you might expect, though his size and strength make up for some of his technical flaws. As his nickname suggests, Mendes likes to barrel straight through his opponents, punching his way into the clinch and firing off knees before dragging the fight to the ground.

Whether he can get there against Garbrandt is another matter, especially on just a week’s notice. Garbrandt is another MMA transplant, but his combat sport of origin was boxing, not jiu-jitsu. As such, Garbrandt does his best work on the feet, throwing tight combinations. As far as offensive technique is concerned, Garbrandt is almost flawless. He keeps his feet under his body at all times, which allows him to generate maximum power with minimal loss of balance. He attacks equally well with either hand, though it would be nice to see him add more nuance to his jab; at the moment, he uses it almost like another power punch. Like Mendes, Garbrandt’s career has been defined by early finishes, but all of his stops have been knockouts.

Garbrandt’s grappling game is rarely put on display. While he does like to keep the opponent guessing by shooting for occasional takedowns, he usually backs off before coming anywhere close to finishing. His top game certainly resembles that of other Team Alpha Male fighters. Garbrandt likes to rain down short elbows and punches and often threatens with a submission just before returning to his feet.

THE ODDS: Garbrandt (-338), Mendes (+272)

THE PICK: This is a classic striker-versus-grappler matchup, and I cannot help but suspect that it will confirm some of the major changes the MMA metagame has undergone over the years. Grapplers once ruled the sport, but more and more fights are decided on the feet. Mendes is not lost in the standup, but Garbrandt has much more experience in that realm; and though Team Alpha Male seems to be on the cusp of a total collapse after the departures of several notable team members and coaches, the one thing Urijah Faber’s fighters have never lacked is counter wrestling. If Garbrandt wants to keep the fight standing, there is little doubt that he will succeed. He takes this one via second-round TKO.

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