Preview: UFC on ESPN 24 Prelims

Middleweights

NR | Kyle Daukaus (10-1, 1-1 UFC) vs. NR | Phil Hawes (10-2, 2-0 UFC)

ODDS: Daukaus (-140), Hawes (+120)

Hawes was regarded as one of the top prospects in the world almost immediately upon his pro debut in 2014, but it took him a long while to make it to the UFC. “Megatron” was one of the on-paper favorites to win Season 23 of “The Ultimate Fighter” back in 2016, but he did not even make it into the house, losing to eventual season winner Andrew Sanchez in the preliminary round. Hawes resurfaced on the promotional radar a year later on Dana White’s Contender Series, where he got another shot despite coming in off of a loss. It went well enough in the early going against Julian Marquez, but Hawes tired himself out and got knocked out for his troubles. After stringing together some quick knockouts, Hawes finally earned a contract via the Contender Series in September, but it was hard to tell if he had evolved much from being the flawed talent of years prior. His UFC debut was an 18-second knockout of Jacob Malkoun, marking the fifth straight fight in which Hawes scored a finish before any questions could be answered. That all made his last bout—a victory over Nassourdine Imavov—particularly enlightening. After a hot start, Hawes was about as exhausted as any fighter in recent memory, doing little but surviving until the bout reached the scorecards and hanging on for a narrow win. Perhaps the experience—it was the first time Hawes had ever seen the third round in a fight, win or lose—can help him going forward, but it also does not bode particularly well heading into this assignment against Daukaus. In stark contrast to Hawes, Daukaus’ career will probably wind up being defined by his athletic ceiling, as he is otherwise quite a skilled and well-rounded fighter. Daukaus got to show off his wares on the Contender Series in 2019, but he was one of the more surprising snubs of the season in terms of not being given a contract. However, the Philadelphian got the UFC call a year later for what turned out to be an excellent war against Brendan Allen, then turned around and handled Dustin Stoltzfus for his first Octagon win. Daukaus cycles through his striking and grappling and looks to drown his opponent in pace, but his aforementioned lack of athleticism is what figures to limit his upside as a true title contender. A former heavyweight, Daukaus is still large for the division but not particularly fast. This is a pretty clear two-outcome fight that comes down to Daukaus’ ability to survive the first round. Once Hawes tires, this looks like a nightmare of a stylistic matchup given Daukaus’ willingness to keep throwing out ideas at a rapid pace. The pick is Daukaus via third-round stoppage.

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