Betting Lines: UFC Champions vs. Contenders

For a breakdown on betting lines and future UFC title bouts, Sherdog.com consulted Joey Oddessa, one of the game’s preeminent oddsmakers and wagering experts:

Lightweights

Diego Sanchez is next in line for a shot at the title and hopefully presents a better challenge than the near 3-to-1 odds indicate. Gray Maynard has improved with every appearance, but champion B.J. Penn has shown himself to be head and shoulders above the lightweights. Maynard would scale in around the same odds as Sanchez against Penn. Shinya Aoki might be the most appealing matchup for Penn outside the current UFC roster. Other non-UFC roster fighters Tatsuya Kawajiri and Eddie Alvarez are also compelling matchups for Penn, but the Hawaiian would be somewhere around a 2-to-1 favorite against any of them.

Welterweights

Georges St. Pierre has been dominant since avenging his 2007 setback at the hands of massive underdog Matt Serra. Rematches are not always fan friendly, but this weight presents the same dilemma as the lightweight division. On the UFC welterweight roster, not many appealing matchups remain on paper. In his last six bouts, the only fighter to present a challenge odds-wise was current UFC lightweight titleholder B.J. Penn, against whom the St Pierre odds closed at -165. St. Pierre has not closed lower than a -200 wagering favorite prior to 2007. Outside the UFC, the name of Jake Shields always comes up, but it seems hard to imagine him presenting a greater challenge than the laundry list of high-caliber wrestlers St. Pierre has already breezed though in the UFC. St. Pierre will not be a wagering underdog for a very long time, if ever, as a welterweight in the UFC.

Middleweights

Anderson Silva has been even more controlling than the UFC champions in the weight classes beneath him. Dan Henderson presents the greatest threat to the Brazilian and remains the only opponent that has not been a huge wagering underdog to Silva, closing at around +125 against the champion in March 2008. One would have to go all the way back to Nate Marquardt, who closed out at +140 in June 2007, to find an active fighter that has been less than a 2.5-to-1 underdog against Silva. Vitor Belfort looks to be next in line for Silva, but the reality is he belongs as a bigger underdog than Henderson or Marquardt, regardless of his recent success. Silva at less than 3-to-1 against Belfort might be a bargain, even if he shows up unfocused.

Light Heavyweights

Lyoto Machida is the riddle no one outside of Mauricio Rua has been able to solve, and even he came up short on the scorecards. Once considered the king of decisions, Machida showed against Thiago Silva and Rashad Evans that he was more than capable of putting his opponents to sleep with his hands. Rua remains the best challenger the UFC has to offer him. Though talk of Gegard Mousasi always seems to be on the table, it appears that challenge will not be in the cards for Machida or Silva, sparking talk of a potential Silva vs. Machida showdown. If a Silva-Machida bout took place tomorrow, Machida would open a small favorite, maybe -140, but bettors could anticipate two-sided wagering action on the bout.

Heavyweights

Brock Lesnar may face the most competitive weight class, simply because of his limited experience. Plus, when two big guys enter the Octagon, anything can happen. Brock has solid challenges on deck, starting with Shane Carwin, a 3-to-1 underdog. Odessa sees Velasquez as an underrated contender who would present a stiffer challenge for Lesnar than Carwin. A great stylistic matchup for Lesnar waits in the wings with Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira. Despite showing signs of aging in his first three UFC appearances, he ran a clinic on Randy Couture as a 2-to-1 wagering underdog. Lesnar’s odds against Cain Velasquez will depend a lot on public perception of their upcoming bouts, but if they were to fight tomorrow, Velasquez would have less-favorable odds to the bettors than Carwin in the underdog role against Lesnar. On paper, Nogueira, of the three, would have much better odds of winning, but that matchup may be as far away as one with Fedor Emelianenko. Lesnar would open the wagering underdog against Emelianenko, despite the fact that many casual fans could not pick him out of a photo lineup with six random Russian hockey players.

Sherdog.com: Which champion would you pick to reign the longest of the current five? Why?
Odessa: Now that MMA champs are making more money and getting mainstream television exposure, it’s difficult to make a prediction on which UFC champion will have the most consistent and lengthy reign as champion. The answer is complicated because the most talented fighters in the world are now being lured to projects outside the Octagon, causing interruptions and premature endings to their fighting careers.

With the UFC now solidifying itself as the premiere MMA organization, you don’t have the “other” fight organizations that sidetracked guys, most notably Randy Couture, in the past. But an entirely new problem presents itself with the giant carrot on the stick -- Hollywood. This creates a different dilemma and temptation for fighters to work outside the fight game.

UFC President Dana White summed it up best when he said he can’t force anyone to fight, referring to Quinton “Rampage” Jackson’s recent decision to pass up fighting for a movie role. The lure of the money and fame with limited risk of injury is appealing to fighters, particularly the Americans.

The obvious choices as to who will reign longest of the current champs would be Anderson Silva or Lyoto Machida. You have two incredible talents that do not seem to be affected, like many of the higher-profile foreign competitors that have been sidetracked, by different rules and a taste of the American dream and lifestyle.